2009年3月5日 星期四
[BLOGGER]繼續閱讀懶人加強版 最新版本 v2.2.0(2009.3.5)
1. 安裝簡易:不需懂程式、html語法,只要點點滑鼠、複製貼上即可使用
2. Auto縮文模式:自動套用在整個blog,不需逐篇插入標記(懶人適用)
二、功能介紹:
1.提供 三種 縮文(繼續閱讀)模式:
* Auto模式:自動以行數(br)縮文
* Custom模式:使用者自行插入特殊標記(標記格式可自訂),由標記處開始縮文
* Mix模式:混合Auto和Custom模式(若有特殊標記,則由標記處縮文,若沒有特殊標記,則按照行數自動縮文)
2.提供 兩種 繼續閱讀連結樣式:
* 直接連結:點選「繼續閱讀」,直接連到文章全文
* 展開/收合:點選「繼續閱讀」,原處 展開/收合 隱藏的內容,並支援動畫效果
3.可設定各頁面(首頁、標籤(tag)分類頁、blog存檔(archive)頁)的文章顯示方式:
* 全文:不做縮文動作
* 摘要:縮文,並顯示繼續閱讀連結
* 標題:只顯示標題
4.快速切換按鈕:
自動產生 全文|摘要|標題 的連結按鈕,可點選並快速切換檢視方式(按鈕名稱、擺放位置可自訂)
三、如何安裝:
請看安裝教學
四、細部設定:(進階使用者適用)
請看參數設定說明
五、有問題/不會用:
請到問題回報頁 留言詢問
六、原始碼:
http://cjh829-easy-read-more.googlecode.com/svn/trunk/
七、版本更新歷程:
1.3.0(2007.2.27)
-公開正式版本釋出
1.3.5(2007.2.28)
-修正IE顯示問題(自動排除未結束的錯誤tag) - 感謝 jealous0953(ptt)回報
1.4.1(2007.3.1)
-修正「較舊的文章」,點選後繼續閱讀無法顯示的問題 - 感謝 jealous0953(ptt)回報
-修改語法(用jQuery取代$、刪除不必要的register) - 感謝Rack Lin提供建議
1.4.2(2007.3.15)
-修正在單一文章頁面(ItemPage),快速切換按鈕不正常出現的問題
2.0.0(2007.9.30)
-1. bug fix - 某些特定blogger模板,只會縮文第一篇的問題
-2. 提供新的縮文方式(可每篇自訂位置)
-3. 縮文模式設定(固定行數、自訂位置、Mix Mode)
-4. 快速切換按鈕整合(不獨立發佈)(可自行決定是否使用)
-5. 升級jQuery版本(1.2.1)
-6. 改為獨立執行(不使用BloggerExt核心)
2.1.0(2007.10.1)
-修正在單一文章頁面(ItemPage),網頁元素(widget)沒有隱藏的問題
-新增"顯示全文"功能,在文章內插入特殊標記,會略過該文章,不做縮文動作
2.2.0(2009.3.5) - 慶祝2.1.0版本下載數破千萬
-1. 升級jQuery版本至1.3.2(改使用Google api連結,不再由google code提供)
-2. 修正_WidgetManager錯誤
-3. 修正##EasyReadMore##字樣不會自動隱藏的問題
-4. 修正切到表格會顯示不正常的問題(自動跳過表格)
-5. 修正文章內含有兩個以上縮文tag,會無法縮文的問題
-6. 展開/收合模式新增動畫效果(slide ,fade ,none)
-7. 新增自動偵測,程式碼的widget不限定一定要擺在文章列表下或右
-8. 刪除部份贅碼,不再針對IE下的錯誤語法做特殊處理(blogger文章編輯器現已可偵測錯誤語法並自動修復)
-9. 新增css設定,可支援自訂模板[進階使用者適用]
2009年2月28日 星期六
從白宮到華爾街,嶄新的訊息 From the WH to the WS, a Clear New Message.(中)
It begins with energy.
第一個是能源!
We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century. And yet, it is China that has launched the largest effort in history to make their economy energy efficient. We invented solar technology, but we've fallen behind countries like Germany and Japan in producing it. New plug-in hybrids roll off our assembly lines, but they will run on batteries made in Korea.
Well I do not accept a future where the jobs and industries of tomorrow take root beyond our borders - and I know you don't either. It is time for America to lead again.
Thanks to our recovery plan, we will double this nation's supply of renewable energy in the next three years. We have also made the largest investment in basic research funding in American history - an investment that will spur not only new discoveries in energy, but breakthroughs in medicine, science, and technology.
還在懷疑歐巴馬的決心嗎?未來三年,只要三年,要將美國的再生能源產量加倍
美國政府還要投注前所未有的大量資金進入研發領域,而且不侷限在能源,包括醫藥,科學和科技都會受惠
科技興國再度正式成為美國的國策
We will soon lay down thousands of miles of power lines that can carry new energy to cities and towns across this country. And we will put Americans to work making our homes and buildings more efficient so that we can save billions of dollars on our energy bills.
改變是徹底的,輸店線路和綠住宅將是著重的重點
(P.S.估計美國老舊的輸電線路每年讓美國額外損失超過10%的發電量,正所謂節省就是最好的開源)
But to truly transform our economy, protect our security, and save our planet from the ravages of climate change, we need to ultimately make clean, renewable energy the profitable kind of energy. So I ask this Congress to send me legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution and drives the production of more renewable energy in America. And to support that innovation, we will invest fifteen billion dollars a year to develop technologies like wind power and solar power; advanced biofuels, clean coal, and more fuel-efficient cars and trucks built right here in America.
每年將投入一百五十億美元於再生能源,乾淨煤炭,二代生質能源和節能車輛上(此金額相當於台灣一年的國防預算)
As for our auto industry, everyone recognizes that years of bad decision-making and a global recession have pushed our automakers to the brink. We should not, and will not, protect them from their own bad practices. But we are committed to the goal of a re-tooled, re-imagined auto industry that can compete and win. Millions of jobs depend on it. Scores of communities depend on it. And I believe the nation that invented the automobile cannot walk away from it.
這裡歐巴馬說溜了嘴,政府不會坐視美國車廠倒店啦~可是,這是有前提的,前提就是必須製造新的節能車輛,政府也會給予協助
None of this will come without cost, nor will it be easy. But this is America. We don't do what's easy. We do what is necessary to move this country forward.
For that same reason, we must also address the crushing cost of health care.
第二個是健保議題
This is a cost that now causes a bankruptcy in America every thirty seconds. By the end of the year, it could cause 1.5 million Americans to lose their homes. In the last eight years, premiums have grown four times faster than wages. And in each of these years, one million more Americans have lost their health insurance. It is one of the major reasons why small businesses close their doors and corporations ship jobs overseas. And it's one of the largest and fastest-growing parts of our budget.
美國健保已經成為美國納稅人最大的負擔,若是不改革,美國前途堪慮
Already, we have done more to advance the cause of health care reform in the last thirty days than we have in the last decade. When it was days old, this Congress passed a law to provide and protect health insurance for eleven million American children whose parents work full-time. Our recovery plan will invest in electronic health records and new technology that will reduce errors, bring down costs, ensure privacy, and save lives. It will launch a new effort to conquer a disease that has touched the life of nearly every American by seeking a cure for cancer in our time. And it makes the largest investment ever in preventive care, because that is one of the best ways to keep our people healthy and our costs under control.
電子化病歷,採用新科技,並投入大量的資金進入疾病防治,例如癌症上
This budget builds on these reforms. It includes an historic commitment to comprehensive health care reform - a down-payment on the principle that we must have quality, affordable health care for every American. It's a commitment that's paid for in part by efficiencies in our system that are long overdue. And it's a step we must take if we hope to bring down our deficit in the years to come.
只要能解決健保過度開支的問題,正是解決政府赤字最好的方式(God, 這傢伙抓重點抓的真準)
Now, there will be many different opinions and ideas about how to achieve reform, and that is why I'm bringing together businesses and workers, doctors and health care providers, Democrats and Republicans to begin work on this issue next week.
I suffer no illusions that this will be an easy process. It will be hard. But I also know that nearly a century after Teddy Roosevelt first called for reform, the cost of our health care has weighed down our economy and the conscience of our nation long enough. So let there be no doubt: health care reform cannot wait, it must not wait, and it will not wait another year.
呼籲立即的方案,希望不要再重蹈柯林頓八年一事無成的前車之鑑
The third challenge we must address is the urgent need to expand the promise of education in America.
In a global economy where the most valuable skill you can sell is your knowledge, a good education is no longer just a pathway to opportunity - it is a pre-requisite.
Right now, three-quarters of the fastest-growing occupations require more than a high school diploma. And yet, just over half of our citizens have that level of education. We have one of the highest high school dropout rates of any industrialized nation. And half of the students who begin college never finish.
This is a prescription for economic decline, because we know the countries that out-teach us today will out-compete us tomorrow. That is why it will be the goal of this administration to ensure that every child has access to a complete and competitive education - from the day they are born to the day they begin a career.
指出教育正是經濟衰退的最大元兇,美國教育在工業國家表現中並不出色
Already, we have made an historic investment in education through the economic recovery plan. We have dramatically expanded early childhood education and will continue to improve its quality, because we know that the most formative learning comes in those first years of life. We have made college affordable for nearly seven million more students. And we have provided the resources necessary to prevent painful cuts and teacher layoffs that would set back our children's progress.
But we know that our schools don't just need more resources. They need more reform. That is why this budget creates new incentives for teacher performance; pathways for advancement, and rewards for success. We'll invest in innovative programs that are already helping schools meet high standards and close achievement gaps. And we will expand our commitment to charter schools.
It is our responsibility as lawmakers and educators to make this system work. But it is the responsibility of every citizen to participate in it. And so tonight, I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of higher education or career training. This can be community college or a four-year school; vocational training or an apprenticeship. But whatever the training may be, every American will need to get more than a high school diploma. And dropping out of high school is no longer an option. It's not just quitting on yourself, it's quitting on your country - and this country needs and values the talents of every American. That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.
These education policies will open the doors of opportunity for our children. But it is up to us to ensure they walk through them. In the end, there is no program or policy that can substitute for a mother or father who will attend those parent/teacher conferences, or help with homework after dinner, or turn off the TV, put away the video games, and read to their child. I speak to you not just as a President, but as a father when I say that responsibility for our children's education must begin at home.
說真的,教育這段和投資的相關性不大,但是小i本身身為一位教育從業人員,看到這段談話,特別有感觸也不禁動容...這也是整場演講中我覺得最振奮人心的一段
There is, of course, another responsibility we have to our children. And that is the responsibility to ensure that we do not pass on to them a debt they cannot pay. With the deficit we inherited, the cost of the crisis we face, and the long-term challenges we must meet, it has never been more important to ensure that as our economy recovers, we do what it takes to bring this deficit down.
演說中的第四個重點來了:債務
絕不債留子孫,會想盡辦法減少美國政府赤字
I'm proud that we passed the recovery plan free of earmarks, and I want to pass a budget next year that ensures that each dollar we spend reflects only our most important national priorities.
Yesterday, I held a fiscal summit where I pledged to cut the deficit in half by the end of my first term in office. My administration has also begun to go line by line through the federal budget in order to eliminate wasteful and ineffective programs. As you can imagine, this is a process that will take some time. But we're starting with the biggest lines. We have already identified two trillion dollars in savings over the next decade.
1. 第一任期的最後一年就要將政府赤字減半(唉,相較起台灣的藍綠政治人物往往將政見兌現日放到第二任去...畫個大餅)
2. !!!!未來十年,美國政府評估,將能夠省下兩兆美元的盈餘!?
In this budget, we will end education programs that don't work and end direct payments to large agribusinesses that don't need them. We'll eliminate the no-bid contracts that have wasted billions in Iraq, and reform our defense budget so that we're not paying for Cold War-era weapons systems we don't use. We will root out the waste, fraud, and abuse in our Medicare program that doesn't make our seniors any healthier, and we will restore a sense of fairness and balance to our tax code by finally ending the tax breaks for corporations that ship our jobs overseas.
如何達成?方法都有提供:減少伊戰軍事開支,減少冷戰遺留武器系統開支,減少健保浮濫浪費的計畫,最重要的,會對頂端2%的富人徵稅,
95%的中產階級基本上不受影響
To preserve our long-term fiscal health, we must also address the growing costs in Medicare and Social Security. Comprehensive health care reform is the best way to strengthen Medicare for years to come. And we must also begin a conversation on how to do the same for Social Security, while creating tax-free universal savings accounts for all Americans.
健保和社保體系將會全盤改革與強化
Finally, because we're also suffering from a deficit of trust, I am committed to restoring a sense of honesty and accountability to our budget. That is why this budget looks ahead ten years and accounts for spending that was left out under the old rules - and for the first time, that includes the full cost of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. For seven years, we have been a nation at war. No longer will we hide its price.
We are now carefully reviewing our policies in both wars, and I will soon announce a way forward in Iraq that leaves Iraq to its people and responsibly ends this war.
伊戰不打了
And with our friends and allies, we will forge a new and comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan to defeat al Qaeda and combat extremism. Because I will not allow terrorists to plot against the American people from safe havens half a world away.
As we meet here tonight, our men and women in uniform stand watch abroad and more are readying to deploy. To each and every one of them, and to the families who bear the quiet burden of their absence, Americans are united in sending one message: we honor your service, we are inspired by your sacrifice, and you have our unyielding support. To relieve the strain on our forces, my budget increases the number of our soldiers and Marines. And to keep our sacred trust with those who serve, we will raise their pay, and give our veterans the expanded health care and benefits that they have earned.
In words and deeds, we are showing the world that a new era of engagement has begun. For we know that America cannot meet the threats of this century alone, but the world cannot meet them without America. We cannot shun the negotiating table, nor ignore the foes or forces that could do us harm. We are instead called to move forward with the sense of confidence and candor that serious times demand.
To seek progress toward a secure and lasting peace between Israel and her neighbors, we have appointed an envoy to sustain our effort. To meet the challenges of the 21st century - from terrorism to nuclear proliferation; from pandemic disease to cyber threats to crushing poverty - we will strengthen old alliances, forge new ones, and use all elements of our national power.
外交問題,這段先不談了
會加強和G20的合作,避免加深貿易保護主義(可是又提到要提高美國產品在市場上的能見度,這意味對外國施壓的力道會加強)
(續下集,本篇不開放留言,請集中至下篇討論)
從白宮到華爾街,嶄新的訊息 From the WH to the WS, a Clear New Message.(下)
As we stand at this crossroads of history, the eyes of all people in all nations are once again upon us - watching to see what we do with this moment; waiting for us to lead.
不斷強調目前是歷史的十字路口
Those of us gathered here tonight have been called to govern in extraordinary times. It is a tremendous burden, but also a great privilege - one that has been entrusted to few generations of Americans. For in our hands lies the ability to shape our world for good or for ill.
大家都會半信半疑,但是其實真理就是這麼簡單(歐巴馬,靠,我都講的這麼明了)
But in my life, I have also learned that hope is found in unlikely places; that inspiration often comes not from those with the most power or celebrity, but from the dreams and aspirations of Americans who are anything but ordinary.
I think about Leonard Abess, the bank president from Miami who reportedly cashed out of his company, took a $60 million bonus, and gave it out to all 399 people who worked for him, plus another 72 who used to work for him. He didn't tell anyone, but when the local newspaper found out, he simply said, ''I knew some of these people since I was 7 years old. I didn't feel right getting the money myself."
I think about Greensburg, Kansas, a town that was completely destroyed by a tornado, but is being rebuilt by its residents as a global example of how clean energy can power an entire community - how it can bring jobs and businesses to a place where piles of bricks and rubble once lay. "The tragedy was terrible," said one of the men who helped them rebuild. "But the folks here know that it also provided an incredible opportunity."
And I think about Ty'Sheoma Bethea, the young girl from that school I visited in Dillon, South Carolina - a place where the ceilings leak, the paint peels off the walls, and they have to stop teaching six times a day because the train barrels by their classroom. She has been told that her school is hopeless, but the other day after class she went to the public library and typed up a letter to the people sitting in this room. She even asked her principal for the money to buy a stamp. The letter asks us for help, and says, "We are just students trying to become lawyers, doctors, congressmen like yourself and one day president, so we can make a change to not just the state of South Carolina but also the world. We are not quitters."
We are not quitters.
上面是一堆煽情的故事..拖台錢,沒啥好談
Their resolve must be our inspiration. Their concerns must be our cause. And we must show them and all our people that we are equal to the task before us.
I know that we haven't agreed on every issue thus far, and there are surely times in the future when we will part ways. But I also know that every American who is sitting here tonight loves this country and wants it to succeed. That must be the starting point for every debate we have in the coming months, and where we return after those debates are done. That is the foundation on which the American people expect us to build common ground.
And if we do - if we come together and lift this nation from the depths of this crisis; if we put our people back to work and restart the engine of our prosperity; if we confront without fear the challenges of our time and summon that enduring spirit of an America that does not quit, then someday years from now our children can tell their children that this was the time when we performed, in the words that are carved into this very chamber, "something worthy to be remembered." Thank you, God Bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.
最後這兩段,建議寄給台灣朝野諸公...相信昨天有看到美國國會的秩序與氣氛的人,都會覺得兩地的政治水平似乎不處在同一個時空結語:
深知美國歷史脈絡的就會知道從雷根主政之後美國基本上就是傾向篇右,即便是在柯林頓時代此趨勢都沒有顯著改變,一走走了將近30年,
也讓我們以為世界經濟就是該這麼走
What if this time is different? What if "now" is an important tunring point in history? 如果這是,新的路線出現,而且要走上另一個三十年?
還在搶資源?還在金權遊戲掌握一切?
油價的崩跌一方面除了顯示泡沫的破裂,也顯示了對於新趨勢成形的不安,
大家若是記憶猶新,應該還記得1990年到2000年,只有短短十年,網際網路發展卻宛如跨越了一個世紀..
如果,這次又如法泡製?
如果10年後,市面上有一半出廠的車是油電混和車,如果10年後,美國的電力運輸系統全面更新(美國光汰換老舊線路的電力損耗就能省下10%以上的電力),如果10年後,美國再生能源從現在不到10%倍增到20%以上?如果,這股由美國引領的新風潮擴散到世界各國?成為21世紀的新顯學?
如果..這又成為另一個新的科技泡沫?
還在搶礦搶資源嗎?對伊朗俄國和委內瑞拉等國來說,這樣的新趨勢恐怕比發兵攻打還要慘,這就是左派和右派思維不同的地方
沒有什麼好不好,只是誰掌權,思維就要跟著改!
(共和黨金主)金融,資源,石油out,
(民主黨金主)科技,生化in
(p.s. 推薦一下這一期的Newsweek主題,The Fall of the Petrostates. 石油國家的隕落)
道瓊破底我們會怕(想想道瓊成分股組成)?但Nasdaq為什麼沒破底(現在1425,離底部1295有一大段距離)?費半甚至還不理道瓊連兩天大漲?
台灣經濟數據一團爛,加上全球股市都慘跌,為什麼台股獨強超強?
真的是媒體所謂的陸股效應嗎?那為什麼最有內需概念的金融股慘跌?中概塑化也沒啥好臉色,漲得卻是大家一路看衰,今年財報註定超慘的科技股?
Why?
美國總統也宣示要嚴肅面對債務問題,不但是政府債務,更有民間債務,我們可以選擇嗤之以鼻,或是..思索一下
講白一點,如果能源和資源退出世界舞台,我們為什麼對原物料極度相關的紐澳南非等非美貨幣這麼有信心?
我們都知道Exxon Mobile是全球市值最大公司,中國銀行市值很大很牛B
但,金融業永遠最重要?不能垮?還是石油業永遠最有力?喊水會結凍?
當金融業受次貸風暴各項衍生交易幾乎壽終正寢時,業務量大量萎縮,大家有沒有想過,
美國政府可能會選擇砍掉重練(國有化),讓金融業回歸到僅具有最原始的商業銀行或頂多加上券商功能?
畢竟,在沒有各項複雜的工具數十年前,金融業同樣存在,國家和經濟體同樣能運行不墜
看看歷史,1999年時,美國光是加州一地科技產業的總產值,就比紐約金融業+底特律汽車業+好萊塢娛樂業三者總和還要多,知道嗎?
新時代的新風向要看清楚,壓錯寶,站錯邊,要等的恐怕不是三年五年,but a dacade!
以上分享,僅供參考,有錯請不吝指正,感恩m(_ _)m
izaax
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從白宮到華爾街,嶄新的訊息 From the WH to the WS, a Clear New Message.(上)
昨天花了一個小時消化歐巴馬首次國情咨文,說真的,講的十分振奮人心,Obama不愧為當代最偉大演說家之一,講到某些令人動容片段實在甚至有些引人熱淚..
結果,今天攤開各份報紙的相關報導,小i倒是真的想哭了...大家似乎不是很重視,不過這樣也好,投資世界本來就是孤獨的
這篇文章,令人感動的其實不是其過人的演說技巧,而是精確點出美國當前經濟問題所在,並提出切中時弊的對策,沒有生手的生嫩
而仔細揣摩其中的關闕,我們甚至可以找出未來很長一段時間美國乃至於世界的新方向,而這對我們往往正意味著「新金礦」
翻譯全文的工作太耗時了,我就簡單幫大家整理一些重要的重點,並於文末提供一點個人的簡單看法,由於演說稿太長無法放入同一篇文章
,因此分成上中下三集,以下,是這次歐巴馬總統於國會演說的全文:
日後回顧21世紀的歷史,這可能會是本世紀最重要的國情咨文:
I've come here tonight not only to address the distinguished men and women in this great chamber, but to speak frankly and directly to the men and women who sent us here.
I know that for many Americans watching right now, the state of our economy is a concern that rises above all others. And rightly so. If you haven't been personally affected by this recession, you probably know someone who has - a friend; a neighbor; a member of your family. You don't need to hear another list of statistics to know that our economy is in crisis, because you live it every day. It's the worry you wake up with and the source of sleepless nights. It's the job you thought you'd retire from but now have lost; the business you built your dreams upon that's now hanging by a thread; the college acceptance letter your child had to put back in the envelope. The impact of this recession is real, and it is everywhere.
But while our economy may be weakened and our confidence shaken; though we are living through difficult and uncertain times, tonight I want every American to know this:
We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger than before.
The weight of this crisis will not determine the destiny of this nation. The answers to our problems don't lie beyond our reach. They exist in our laboratories and universities; in our fields and our factories; in the imaginations of our entrepreneurs and the pride of the hardest-working people on Earth. Those qualities that have made America the greatest force of progress and prosperity in human history we still possess in ample measure. What is required now is for this country to pull together, confront boldly the challenges we face, and take responsibility for our future once more.
要著力的重點,美國的問題所在
Now, if we're honest with ourselves, we'll admit that for too long, we have not always met these responsibilities - as a government or as a people. I say this not to lay blame or look backwards, but because it is only by understanding how we arrived at this moment that we'll be able to lift ourselves out of this predicament.
The fact is, our economy did not fall into decline overnight. Nor did all of our problems begin when the housing market collapsed or the stock market sank. We have known for decades that our survival depends on finding new sources of energy. Yet we import more oil today than ever before. The cost of health care eats up more and more of our savings each year, yet we keep delaying reform. Our children will compete for jobs in a global economy that too many of our schools do not prepare them for. And though all these challenges went unsolved, we still managed to spend more money and pile up more debt, both as individuals and through our government, than ever before.
近一步闡明問題的核心所在,能源,健保,教育,債務(演說四大主軸)
In other words, we have lived through an era where too often, short-term gains were prized over long-term prosperity; where we failed to look beyond the next payment, the next quarter, or the next election. A surplus became an excuse to transfer wealth to the wealthy instead of an opportunity to invest in our future. Regulations were gutted for the sake of a quick profit at the expense of a healthy market. People bought homes they knew they couldn't afford from banks and lenders who pushed those bad loans anyway. And all the while, critical debates and difficult decisions were put off for some other time on some other day.
嚴肅面對債務的問題,黑馬這次玩真的!?信不信由你
Well that day of reckoning has arrived, and the time to take charge of our future is here.
Now is the time to act boldly and wisely - to not only revive this economy, but to build a new foundation for lasting prosperity. Now is the time to jumpstart job creation, re-start lending, and invest in areas like energy, health care, and education that will grow our economy, even as we make hard choices to bring our deficit down. That is what my economic agenda is designed to do, and that's what I'd like to talk to you about tonight.
It's an agenda that begins with jobs.
Over the next two years, this plan will save or create 3.5 million jobs. More than 90% of these jobs will be in the private sector - jobs rebuilding our roads and bridges; constructing wind turbines and solar panels; laying broadband and expanding mass transit.
振興計畫不是債留子孫,而是為了製造更多民間部門的就業(90%),錢會被用在基礎建設,風力太陽能,擴大寬頻和大眾運輸建設
Because of this plan, there are teachers who can now keep their jobs and educate our kids. Health care professionals can continue caring for our sick. There are 57 police officers who are still on the streets of Minneapolis tonight because this plan prevented the layoffs their department was about to make.
有了這個計畫,教育和醫療能夠更好地發展
Because of this plan, 95% of the working households in America will receive a tax cut - a tax cut that you will see in your paychecks beginning on April 1st.
Because of this plan, families who are struggling to pay tuition costs will receive a $2,500 tax credit for all four years of college. And Americans who have lost their jobs in this recession will be able to receive extended unemployment benefits and continued health care coverage to help them weather this storm.
I know there are some in this chamber and watching at home who are skeptical of whether this plan will work. I understand that skepticism. Here in Washington, we've all seen how quickly good intentions can turn into broken promises and wasteful spending. And with a plan of this scale comes enormous responsibility to get it right.
So the recovery plan we passed is the first step in getting our economy back on track. But it is just the first step. Because even if we manage this plan flawlessly, there will be no real recovery unless we clean up the credit crisis that has severely weakened our financial system.
I want to speak plainly and candidly about this issue tonight, because every American should know that it directly affects you and your family's well-being. You should also know that the money you've deposited in banks across the country is safe; your insurance is secure; and you can rely on the continued operation of our financial system. That is not the source of concern.
不用擔心金融體系啦(國有化是後盾?)
The concern is that if we do not re-start lending in this country, our recovery will be choked off before it even begins.
You see, the flow of credit is the lifeblood of our economy. The ability to get a loan is how you finance the purchase of everything from a home to a car to a college education; how stores stock their shelves, farms buy equipment, and businesses make payroll.
But credit has stopped flowing the way it should. Too many bad loans from the housing crisis have made their way onto the books of too many banks. With so much debt and so little confidence, these banks are now fearful of lending out any more money to households, to businesses, or to each other. When there is no lending, families can't afford to buy homes or cars. So businesses are forced to make layoffs. Our economy suffers even more, and credit dries up even further.
We will do so in several ways. First, we are creating a new lending fund that represents the largest effort ever to help provide auto loans, college loans, and small business loans to the consumers and entrepreneurs who keep this economy running.
有關流動性問題,第一步,政府會成立新的借貸資金提供私人汽車,學貸和商業貸款
Second, we have launched a housing plan that will help responsible families facing the threat of foreclosure lower their monthly payments and re-finance their mortgages. It's a plan that won't help speculators or that neighbor down the street who bought a house he could never hope to afford, but it will help millions of Americans who are struggling with declining home values - Americans who will now be able to take advantage of the lower interest rates that this plan has already helped bring about. In fact, the average family who re-finances today can save nearly $2000 per year on their mortgage.
第二步:政府會幫助負責任的屋主度過難關(這裡特別強調政府不會援助購買超過自己負擔能力的屋主)
Third, we will act with the full force of the federal government to ensure that the major banks that Americans depend on have enough confidence and enough money to lend even in more difficult times. And when we learn that a major bank has serious problems, we will hold accountable those responsible, force the necessary adjustments, provide the support to clean up their balance sheets, and assure the continuity of a strong, viable institution that can serve our people and our economy.
第三步:會確保重要銀行的運行
I understand that on any given day, Wall Street may be more comforted by an approach that gives banks bailouts with no strings attached, and that holds nobody accountable for their reckless decisions. But such an approach won't solve the problem. And our goal is to quicken the day when we re-start lending to the American people and American business and end this crisis once and for all.
華爾街,你的好日子過去了,皮繃緊一點
I intend to hold these banks fully accountable for the assistance they receive, and this time, they will have to clearly demonstrate how taxpayer dollars result in more lending for the American taxpayer. This time, CEOs won't be able to use taxpayer money to pad their paychecks or buy fancy drapes or disappear on a private jet. Those days are over.
好日子過去了..
I understand that when the last administration asked this Congress to provide assistance for struggling banks, Democrats and Republicans alike were infuriated by the mismanagement and results that followed. So were the American taxpayers. So was I.
So I know how unpopular it is to be seen as helping banks right now, especially when everyone is suffering in part from their bad decisions. I promise you - I get it.
我知道大家對於救銀行都很不爽,我(歐巴馬)也很不爽
But I also know that in a time of crisis, we cannot afford to govern out of anger, or yield to the politics of the moment. My job - our job - is to solve the problem. Our job is to govern with a sense of responsibility. I will not spend a single penny for the purpose of rewarding a single Wall Street executive, but I will do whatever it takes to help the small business that can't pay its workers or the family that has saved and still can't get a mortgage.
That's what this is about. It's not about helping banks - it's about helping people. Because when credit is available again, that young family can finally buy a new home. And then some company will hire workers to build it. And then those workers will have money to spend, and if they can get a loan too, maybe they'll finally buy that car, or open their own business. Investors will return to the market, and American families will see their retirement secured once more. Slowly, but surely, confidence will return, and our economy will recover.
So I ask this Congress to join me in doing whatever proves necessary. Because we cannot consign our nation to an open-ended recession. And to ensure that a crisis of this magnitude never happens again, I ask Congress to move quickly on legislation that will finally reform our outdated regulatory system. It is time to put in place tough, new common-sense rules of the road so that our financial market rewards drive and innovation, and punishes short-cuts and abuse.
好啦,救銀行只是短期方案,真正的主軸,我們的責任-能源,健保,教育,債務!
In the next few days, I will submit a budget to Congress. So often, we have come to view these documents as simply numbers on a page or laundry lists of programs. I see this document differently. I see it as a vision for America - as a blueprint for our future.
My budget does not attempt to solve every problem or address every issue. It reflects the stark reality of what we've inherited - a trillion dollar deficit, a financial crisis, and a costly recession.
Given these realities, everyone in this chamber - Democrats and Republicans - will have to sacrifice some worthy priorities for which there are no dollars. And that includes me.
But that does not mean we can afford to ignore our long-term challenges. I reject the view that says our problems will simply take care of themselves; that says government has no role in laying the foundation for our common prosperity.
聽懂暗示沒?我是左派,右派的歷史結束了,腦筋轉不過來的要快點轉(reject, 這個用語很重)
For history tells a different story. History reminds us that at every moment of economic upheaval and transformation, this nation has responded with bold action and big ideas. In the midst of civil war, we laid railroad tracks from one coast to another that spurred commerce and industry. From the turmoil of the Industrial Revolution came a system of public high schools that prepared our citizens for a new age. In the wake of war and depression, the GI Bill sent a generation to college and created the largest middle-class in history. And a twilight struggle for freedom led to a nation of highways, an American on the moon, and an explosion of technology that still shapes our world.
In each case, government didn't supplant private enterprise; it catalyzed private enterprise. It created the conditions for thousands of entrepreneurs and new businesses to adapt and to thrive.
We are a nation that has seen promise amid peril, and claimed opportunity from ordeal. Now we must be that nation again. That is why, even as it cuts back on the programs we don't need, the budget I submit will invest in the three areas that are absolutely critical to our economic future: energy, health care, and education.
三大投資主軸:能源!健保!教育!
(續中集,本篇不開放留言,請集中至下篇討論)
2009年2月2日 星期一
聖彼德堡悖論
Mr Thursday在介紹機率的一篇文章中,談及人們可以利用期望值的概念,對不確定的事情的價值進行估算。這次我想談談一個和期望值有直接關係的悖論 - 聖彼德堡悖論﹝St Petersburg Paradox﹞
##ReadMore##
聖彼德堡悖論所提及的情形是這樣的,如果現在有一個遊戲,首先擲一個銅板,如果擲出正面,你便會得到1元,這樣遊戲便結束了。但如果擲出反面,便要再擲一次,如果在這個時候擲出正面,便賺2元﹝2^1﹞,同樣,擲出反面的話便要再擲一次。在如果在這次才擲到正面,你便得到4元﹝2^2﹞,如果是反面則再擲,一直繼續,直到擲出正面才結算。
總括而言便是「出現反面便再擲,如果出現正面你便得到x元,x是2的n-1次方(x=2^(n-1)),而n則是一共擲了多少次」。
這個遊戲的結果是一種「不確定的事情」﹝因為我不知道會出現多少次反面啊﹞,人們如何估量這種事情的價值?換句話說,就假設這個個銅板真是是1/2 機會出現正面,1/2 機會出現反面,你會願意付出多少錢來換取可以參加這個遊戲的權利?
表面上好像沒有什麼特別,但如果我們利用期望值進行估算,這個遊戲的期望值竟然是…….
期望值=(1/2)*1 + (1/4)*2 + (1/8)*4 + (1/16)*8 + (1/32)*16 ……….= (1/2)+(1/2)+(1/2)+…… = 無限大?!
期望值的確是這樣計出來的,1/2 的機會得到1 元,1/4 機會得到2 元,1/8 機會得到4 元,如此類推……….最後把它們都加起來,不就是期望值了嗎?那就是說這個遊戲的期望值是無限大,但問題是,我猜沒有人會為了玩這個遊戲付出很多金錢吧,想想看啊,這個遊戲很有可能只會讓你得到1 ,2 或4 元,不要說「無限大」了,要付出100元去玩這個遊戲也嫌太多了吧。可是為什麼大家都不願意付出很多金錢去換取這個期望值是無限大的遊戲呢?
對於這個悖論,有很多人都提出過解釋,第一個是利用了期望功用理論,這和之前提及的功用理論是有點關係的。
期望功用理論
Log Function (Source: Wikipedia)
數學家Daniel Bernoulli提出,我們對一項物品的價值是由它帶給我們的功用而來的,即使是金錢或財富我們也可以用同樣的說法,就是說我們應估量的,是這個金錢或財富帶給我們的功用的期望值,而不是金錢本身的期望值。
他說我們可以用一個功用函數來表達金錢帶給人們的功用,然後把功用的期望值計算出來,他選用的功用函數是對數函數,即是說,擁有1元,帶給我們的功用數值是log(1),擁有2元,則是log(2),擁有x 元便是log(x),而這個log(x)才是我們真正要估量的價值。
如果利用這個函數把期望值重計一次,便知道那絕對不是「無限大」,某程度上是解答了聖彼德堡悖論。
可是,在云云這麼多的函數中,為什麼他偏偏要選擇對數函數?原來對數函數有一個重要的特性,就是它是不斷的上升,而且是越升越慢的,這個特性正好表達了一個窮光蛋得到5000元便高興得很,但一個億萬富豪得到5000元卻不覺得有什麼特別高興這種情況﹝註一﹞。而事實上,如果我們選其他會「越升越慢」的函數﹝例如平方根﹞,也有差不多的效果。
我明白說到這兒一定有很多人跑出來說這個函數有問題,但Daniel Bernoulli這個解答的漏洞還不止這一個。更嚴重的問題是,即使對數函數真的可以把功用表達出來,但只要我們把這個遊戲稍稍調整,例如由大家擲到正面時可以得到2^(n-1)元,改為exp(2^(n-1))元,那麼不管你是說這個遊戲的期望值,還是它的功用的期望值也好,通通都變成無限大了。但明顯地,即使這種調整是令這遊戲賞金提高了不少,仍然沒有人們會肯付出數萬元去換取玩這個很有可能只能得到少於數十元的遊戲的。
總括來說這個利用期望功用理論的解答是問題多多,但原來Daniel Bernoulli 的表親Nicolas Bernoulli 也對這個悖論提出了一個解釋,他是從人們對那些不太可能發生的事件的態度來看這個悖論的。
人們傾向不理會太可能發生的事件
Source: http://wowbox.tw/
Nicolas Bernoulli 所提出的是,當我們仔細看看期望值的計算︰
期望值= (1/2)*1 + (1/4)*2 + (1/8)*4 + (1/16)*8 + (1/32)*16 …….
期望值的確是無限大沒錯,但一開始的數項﹝(1/2)*1 + (1/4)*2 + (1/8)*4﹞已經把最有可能發生的數個情況寫出來了,餘下的﹝(1/16)*8或之後的﹞都是那些發生機率很低很低的事﹝機率是(1/32),(1/64),(1/128)………﹞,而人們會很重視機率大的數項﹝就是你很大機會會得到1 ,2 或4 元﹞,而不會理會後面那些不太可能發生的可能性。這樣看,他們當然就不肯付很多錢去參加這個遊戲啊。
維基百科中提及Nicolas Bernoulli這個解釋的問題在於,很多心理學的展望理論﹝Prospect theory﹞或實驗經濟學到得到結論都說「人們是會過於重視那些不太可能發生的事件」,這和Nicolas Bernoulli 所提出的剛好相反。可是要留意一點,很多在心理學或實驗經濟學中提及的「人們是會過於重視那些不太可能發生的事件」,都是指造成損失的事件,好像是如果有一個遊戲是有0.0001% 你會損失很多錢,你便會感到過於害怕而不敢玩,即使只是0.0001%。但這不代表把事件換成是像聖彼德堡悖論中那種「賺錢事件」時,結果都會一樣﹝補充︰這兒我說得太武斷了,請看小光的回應﹞。試想,同一個人,可以因為對出現很低機率的損失很重視,但同時又對很低機率的賺錢機會覺得沒什麼感覺吧。所以我不太贊同wikipedia中所說「現代的展望理論推番了Nicolas Bernoulli的解釋」的說法。可是我看過的心理學文獻實在很少,如果說錯了請指正。
是因為對方根本付不起
這個是在眾多對聖彼得堡悖論的解答中我最喜歡的一個,簡單說這個解答便是「人們不肯付錢玩這個遊戲,是因為對方賠不起」。也許你會說,難道你找一個極極極度有錢的人開設這個遊戲,人們就會付出數萬元去玩這個很可能只派1或2 元的遊戲嗎?答案是,是,但這個「極極極度有錢」是什麼意思?
如果我們假設對方有十億元,也就是說如果你真的十分好運,連擲29 次反面,到第30 次才擲正面,對方便會破產,那時只好賠你十億元了事。如果我們依照之前的說法,把期望值計算出來,又會得到什麼?
期望值=(1/2)*1 + (1/4)*2 + (1/8)*4 + (1/16)*8 + (1/32)*16 …….+ 1000000000*(1/2)^30 = 15.93
原來如果對方「只有」十億元這麼「少」的錢,我們對這個遊戲的期望值便由「無限大」跌至15.93 元,而在真實世界提供這種遊戲給我們的人,應該不會有十億元吧,如果他們最多只可以賠數十萬元﹝也不算是小數目了﹞,那麼期望值就真的只餘下數元了。如果說我們只願意付出數元去玩這個遊戲的話,看來期望值對於這個遊戲價值的估量也不是太差。
後記
維基百科對St Petersburg paradox還有更詳細的解釋,也有一些上面沒有提及的解答,有興趣的讀者可以去看看。原來寫這種paradox 也蠻難的﹝還以為會比較輕鬆﹞,本來還想在一篇裏寫完St Petersburg paradox, Allais Paradox 和Ellsburg Paradox,現在很來還是在另一篇才寫吧。
﹝註一﹞對數函數還表達了人們對風險的厭惡,這也解釋了為什麼用這個函數可以某程度上可以用來解答聖彼德堡悖論,如果用文字來說就相等於說「單用期望值的話沒有考慮風險因素,而人們不肯付出無限多的金錢去玩這個遊戲是因為他們不想承受這個遊戲的風險」
2009年1月6日 星期二
經濟學人:現代上班族渴求每天好幾次回饋,但也愈來愈仰賴別人意見
這期的《經濟學人》竟然很難得的介紹了一個叫「Rypple」的網站。哪泥?經濟學人幹嘛介紹網站?於是這篇文章帶來了「不只是網站」的更深一層的人生意義。
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Rypple這個網站也真的很妙,它其實只是一個「幫你問意見」的網站,還想模仿微型部落格每條意見只給問100個字元,不過,這個普普通通的網站,竟已經被創業家(或他身邊的高手)巧妙包裝成一個「企業應用網站」,上上周的WWD部落格一篇文章已經稱Rypple為一個可以協助人資人員取得「360度績效評估」 的工具。所謂「360度績效評估」,就是在年終除了由主管評部屬打考績是優等、甲等還是乙等,還要由同部門的同事,甚至部屬也都可以幫忙打績效,全方位的 環景。Rypple號稱,企業可以要求每個員工透過Rypple來問一個關於他自己的問題,然後寄Rypple給所有同事的email住址,同事就會收 到,然後幫你評價,評價可以匿名,可以只回報到人資部門,就是「360度績效評估」囉!
也就是說,你或你的主管可以問大家:「各位,這位同事今天對客戶的簡報表現怎樣?」
「花小姐這次在尾牙的主持還滿意嗎?」
甚至,在某位員工試用期滿前,還可以問問大家:「你認為小明可以過試用期嗎?」
因為Rypple喊出了這個方向,所以它理所當然的對企業使用者收取每個CPU $2~5美元的費用。我對Rypple的看法有些保守,這樣的「360度績效評估」似乎不足,但它的用意真妙。接下來,來到這星期的這篇《經濟學人》的文章(連結在這裡再貼一次),發現它竟然又以另一個更特殊的觀點來介紹Rypple。
《經濟學人》破題就指出,Rypple解決了現在年輕上班族的一個「需求」──
現在的年輕上班族、電腦世代,需要老闆給他們更頻繁的「回饋」(feedback)!
什麼意思?它說,以往企業習慣一年才打一次績效。現在層級打破,老闆或許機會一周與基層員工開會一次,所以變成一周一次績效。
一周打一次績效,夠頻繁了吧?
這篇報導說,不,這樣仍然太少,這樣仍然太少!
報導說,目前各企業的基層員工或初階主管,從小打電動到大,喜歡破關,習慣看自己的名字掛在排行榜上,打一場成功,就可以掛上去,不必等到期末考! 現在網路時代來了,每個網路人更是習慣「頻繁的回饋」,比如你的同事裡可能有在寫部落格的,寫部落格的人,天天都在看流量,有的甚至還是每小時都要打開部 落格後台看留言的!對這些人來說,他們已經習慣,一天得到好幾次的「回饋」。
這些回饋化為動力,讓年輕的白領,繼續前進。不過由於習慣以這些回饋為動力,於是大家被寵慣,《經濟學人》建議,現代老闆若想有效鼓勵與監督這些年輕人,應該順著世代趨勢,把「績效評估」做得更頻繁,頻繁到一天可以好幾次。注意,一、天、好、幾、次!讓年輕人可以以和玩網路一樣的心情放在工作上。《經濟學人》認為,Rypple這個網站,正是可以做到「極頻繁的回饋」(frequent assessments)。
Rypple的部份先別提了,其他的觀察,真是一語道破,很有道理,現在的新上班族,的確需要主管更常常給予回饋,但,我認為,也不自覺的陷入一個愈來愈沒有自我的境地--
上次接受採訪,談到「宅文化」。我頑皮提出一個新概念──從前大家說,宅男宅女就是那些戴著厚眼鏡整天只看電腦的人,宅男宅女都有「社交障礙症」,成天閉門不出,天天晨昏顛倒,生活異於常人?我說,錯!宅男與宅女之所以在電腦前面這麼久,是否也有另一種可能──他們實在太愛交朋友了?
這些宅男宅女,很有可能是對社交「需求更大」的人!
就是因為他們「太愛熱鬧」,所以才要天天掛網,每天和網路上許多朋友更新自己的最新狀況、最新想法……。
從這個方向來思考「宅文化」,會發現原本以為是問題的不是問題,原本以為不是問題的反而是問題。
昨天我到伯朗咖啡店,伯朗咖啡廳的插座已經是全台北市最多的,但需要使用的人更多,座位一桌難求,現在可以坐在座位上安然打電腦的全都是好不容易佔 到的。我好不容易佔到一位,然後去上洗手間,去的時候,一、二、三、四、五、六台電腦,每個人無論男的女的年輕的老的都一臉專注(一臉如癡如呆)盯著自己 的電腦,有的眉頭深鎖,有的眼睛快噴出火,好像都很投入,顯然都是宅男宅女是吧?但回來的路上,反過來偷看他們的電腦螢幕,一、二、三、四、五、六台電 腦,原來,他(她)們全部都在IM上面聊天。每一個人都開著IM視窗,放在正中間正在打字或聽字,有好幾個還「放到最大」。
《經濟學人》這次點出了一個重要訊息:現在的人對回饋系統的需求量被網路養得更大,變得「每天都要、每小時都要」,而他們的解決方法是「Rypple」,認為主管就要更常給他們回饋,同事也要更常常有回饋?
這個Rypple案例也突然讓我想到另一件事,想來提出討論一下──我們在網路世代是否太仰賴「別人的回饋」了?
一個人最安全也最適合的回饋,其實來自自己。
給自己回饋的能力,大家已經漸漸沒有了。現代人習慣在線上與人交流,從他們得到回饋,久而久之,大家愈來愈仰賴來自社群的言語,做什麼事都有一個「百人智囊團」可以出主意,但,從此也變得沒有「自己回饋自己」的能力。
大家聽到一個好棒的文章,連忙將這文章轉寄給好友,自己卻不留一份。
大家聽到一個很深的領悟,連忙告訴好友這件事,自己卻不留一份。
久而久之,不留任何東西給自己。
大家已經很久沒打開一個「檔案」,寫一些東西,存檔。
大家已經很久沒有整理自己的一切,將它包包裝裝成一個「不是馬上給別人看」的東西。
這些事情不會立刻被人看到,它們就像種子,總有一天,有人會看到──
那個人是「自己」。
以後的自己。
自己看到有何值得慶賀之處?
最近為了給雜誌拍照,把所有的日記翻出來,也順帶剛好把最近幾個月的日記印出、裝訂。這個動作最近因為忙碌比較沒做,一做了後,感覺上和寫部落格非常不一樣。 我看到這些作品,心中的回饋非常的大,那是一年前的我給現在的我的回饋,只要我繼續寫下去,現在的我又在給一年後的我預埋回饋。只要每天製造好幾個這樣的 回饋,以後自己會天天收到自己留給自己的回饋。以數量來看,以我而言,想一想,每天至少要「做完」大約十件事。早上若寫兩篇文章就是先做完兩件事,然後做 完兩個簡報又是完成兩件事。寫了兩封正式的信函又是完成兩件事。收尾兩個網站的功能也是完成兩件事。以上這些事都是存檔下來,留在那邊等待其他人以後來 看、或在下一場要用。當開始用的時候,拿出來就會被自己的檔案給感受到:「哇,一個回饋!」
自己給自己回饋原來這麼簡單。
做完一件事,將它封存在硬碟的某一處。
做完一件事,讓它靜靜坐在辦公桌的角落。
做完一件事,讓它以完成的姿態站在那邊等著人去觀賞。
只要是成品,就是一個很大的回饋,這比每天在線上放線頭,沒有一個結尾還要好得很多很多。這是自己可以讚賞自己的最佳方式。
這些事情會四處發酵、遍地開花。不久以後,通通都是自己的禮物。
2008年12月29日 星期一
何寫論文:論文的起點
又到了寫論文的季節。下面這篇文章不是我寫的,而是我求學時代看到的文章,算起來也是好幾年前了。這篇文章的作者,是時任台大資管系主任莊裕澤教授,在看過研究所同學的論文proposal之後,有感而發對實驗室同學寫下的信。當年這封信只在實驗室同學、學弟妹、好友間輾轉流傳,而現在這篇文章的刊出,已經過老師的同意,用意是希望與更多朋友分享。〈文章最後改了一點字句,主要是實驗室的相關細節資訊,刪去與本文主旨無礙〉
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Dear all:
今年的proposal我用較高的標準來衡量,因此大部份的人都得再花一點時間修正。我的用意是與其等到四、五月你們寫論文時再要求你們改進,不如利用這個寒假好好督促你們把論文的前三章寫得完整。我大致翻了所內今年提出的proposals,我們實驗室的成員大部份只在平均附近(或者低些)。我想如果再不嚴格督促你們,我們以後恐怕無法再以LAB成員自豪。
我大概跟你們提過如何寫proposal,但可能不是很有系統。為了讓你們能把proposal及論文寫好。我花了一點時間整理自己的心得,供你們參考。
論文大致上有五、六章。第一章是Introduction,這一章通常只佔論文整體篇幅的十分之一,卻是最關鍵的一章;它就像一個物品的包裝一樣,即使結果再好,但包裝差,也會讓整篇論文頓時失色。在國際會議論文的審稿過程中,很多委員往往僅從Introduction中評斷論文是否值得接受。Introduction要如何寫好是需要一些天份與努力的,基本上它就像在寫作文一樣,要有強而有力的開頭,在前一、二段就能帶領讀者進入你要研究的領域。接下來的幾個段落,你必須替讀者建立足夠的background,讓他們了解你論文的研究背景。Background建立好之後,你必須點出整個研究的動機,這是最關鍵的地方,動機不足,無法顯示你研究的重要性,變成無病呻吟,甚至連呻吟的聲音都聽不到,不曉得你到底要做什麼。動機點出來之後,通常就會說明你的研究成果及主要貢獻,也就是論文的價值之所在。在Proposal階段,這部分會以預期的方式來呈現。最後,你會花一段文字來說明整個論文的架構,並做為第一章的總結。
除了動機要強之外,第一章一般比較容易犯的毛病是研究背景給的不充分,以及與研究動機沒有連貫性,研究背景漫無邊際的討論,然後“天外飛來”你的研究動機。切記一點,寫研究論文邏輯一定要清晰,整個章節的構思邏輯是什麼、為何這個句子要承接上個段句子、這個段落要承接上個段落等等,一定要清楚的思考過。許多論文的敗筆在於論文東一段、西一段,段落之間沒有邏輯關聯,讓論文整體雜亂無章。如何避免這樣的問題,如果你沒有天份的話,只好靠後天的努力:對於論文返覆的讀取,不厭其煩的思考句子、段落之間是否有邏輯上的問題。我個人的經驗是,我自己寫過的文章,每讀一次都有新的體會與修正。一篇論文寫完之後,我都會再從頭到尾讀一次,修改到我最近一次讀過後沒有新的修正為止。這樣通常會經歷四、五回合以上。我最不喜歡見到的是學生論文寫完之後,從頭到尾連一次都沒看過就送給我,裡面錯誤百出,甚至連基本的連結 (cross reference)都錯,好像要我幫他校稿一樣。你們有些人也有這樣的毛病,這樣的毛病不改是做不好學問的。以後我看到這樣的論文馬上就退。我以前念書的時候跟指導教授meeting討論論文時總是戰戰兢兢,在給他看我的論文時我自己會來回看好多次,深怕犯一些明顯的文法或邏輯錯誤,或他曾經指正過我的錯誤,我也藉此訓練出比較獨立的研究能力。這裡我感覺大多數的學生都比較缺乏獨立的研究能力,有些則完全依賴指導教授替他修改論文,甚至覺得理所當然,這是相當不正確的研究態度。
第二章是文獻探討。在寫這章前一定要仔細思考你要探討哪些相關文獻,這些相關文獻如何分門別類,然後在第二張開頭以約一頁的篇幅描述你要survey的內容、範圍與架構。當然,你得提供充分的理由說明為何你要做這樣的組織分類。文獻探討要做的好是一門學問,它並不是把一些相關的文獻看過,然後對每個文獻作摘要即可。把相關文獻做一個有系統的分類,本身就是一種貢獻。一般而言,每個研究領域都可以拉的很廣,你在有限的空間內不可能全部涉獵,因此,你得設定一適當的焦距,決定文獻探討的領域範圍。
在你設定的範圍內一定有許多文獻要探討,你得將這些文獻分門別類,每一類別選定一個最具代表性的文獻做這個類別的開端。接下來你得摘要這篇文獻的主要內容與貢獻,並且用比較簡單淺顯的方式讓讀者了解關鍵的技術。一般而言,這篇代表性的文獻後續多少有些follow-up繼續改進前人的結果。這時你大致不需要針對每個follow-up做仔細討論,只要用一、二句話摘要出每個follow-up改進之處即可。把比較重要的follow-up說明之後,你應該以一段話做為這個類別的結論。這一段話必須評論目前在這類別的研究成果大致為何,還有那些不足的地方,以及與你的研究有何關聯(如你會採用那些既有的技術,你的研究方法或成果與它們有何差異,你的研究對這個領域的貢獻為何)。
很多人的文獻探討只摘要了別人的成果,卻少了最後這一段,無法讓人了解你的survey與你的研究議題有何關聯,也不曉得你對前人的成果看法為何。另外一個比較常見的問題就是survey不深入犀利,講得都是很表面得東西,讓人家覺得看你的survey對這領域一點幫助都沒有。
對每個類別survey完之後你必須對這整個章節做一個結論。在這個總結裏,你必須匯整出這個領域裏目前的研究進展,還有那些不足的地方,並且從此支持你在第一章提到的研究動機,以承接下一章節。
第三章基本上是要描述你的研究議題與方法。你必須清楚的描述及定義你的問題。有些時候,問題與定義會牽涉到你的系統或演算法所植基於的model,因此你也必須定義你用的系統model為何,有那些假設的前題。接下來就是說明你的研究方法,所須的定義與所用的核心技術。接下來就是提出你對問題的解決方案,並分析討論它的優劣。在proposal的階段基本上不必具體的提出解決方法,只要討論你大致將採行的措施即可。但即使如此,在proposal的階段這一章也不能馬虎的做表面的探討。一定要具一定的深度,才可以讓committee 的成員相信你對於你的研究議題有足夠的了解。這一章寫深入,你未來修改甚至更換研究題目的機率就低。
第四章通常是對於你在第三章提出的問題解決方案做一實證,如系統模擬,比較你的方法效能為何、與既有的方法有何差異。
第五章就是對論文做一結論,在這裡你必須重覆你整個研究的動機,再敘述你的成果,然後說明你的研究價值與貢獻。每項研究總有不盡完美之處,你的大概也不例外。因此,接下來你就要討論你的研究成果或系統還有那些可以改進之處,據此引出未來研究方向。
第四、五章在proposal階段是不必要有的。另外,根據研究議題的差異與研究成果的大小,有些論文(特別是博士論文)在討論其研究成果時會分成兩個以上的章節來說明,因此論文總體而言會有五章以上。
論文最後必須附上參考文獻。這是大多數人最容易忽略的地方。因此,研究態度嚴不嚴謹也很容易從這個地方看出。我已經告訴過你們參考文獻要如何編排,應該會有那些欄位。你們要確實且詳盡的去建立每筆參考文獻。另外,參考文獻的數目應該要適中。碩士論文我認為應該在30筆到40筆之間。博士論文可能多達四、五十筆以上。但也不要過度誇大,把許多不相干的都放進來。當然,這些數目都不是絕對的,它會隨研究領域和議題有所差異。
我再花點時間跟大家談談怎樣做好survey的工作。(我用了約一天的時間整理這些東西,我的中打不好,昨晚打字打到清晨4點,只打了2/3,所以請你好好的看完!)
Survey是做好論文的第一步,也是關鍵的一步。Survey的目的大家都知道,就是要對研究的議題有個深入且廣泛的了解,這樣才知道目前在這領域裡研究的進展已經到什麼地步,state of the art是什麼,有那些的子題及技術已經被探討,從而也可以知道那些還可以開發,那些技術可以被你的研究議題拿來應用。Survey 做的不好,最致命的打擊就是在你對你的研究議題一頭埋入,花了許多心血,好不容易熬出一些成果之後,突然才發現別人早已經發表同樣或類似的成果。
怎樣才能把survey做的深入且廣泛呢?我的方法是你要知道在這領域裡主要的國際會議是什麼,然後把這些會議近幾年來(至少三年)所發表過的論文的title及abstract瀏覽一次,找出跟研究議題比較相關的論文(注意:是「議題」,不是「領域」)。這樣初步找出來的論文大概從十來篇到二、三十篇,甚至也可能更多。接著,你得把這些論文的Introduction看一遍,對它們做個初步的瀏覽,然後把這些論文依它們與你的研究議題的相關性做個大致的排序。接下來就是依序把這些論文仔細的研讀,每篇論文的重點是什麼,關鍵的技術又是什麼,都得弄得很清楚。我的經驗是:因為剛開始對研究議題較不熟悉,前面幾篇念起來通常較吃力。可是隨著研讀的論文愈多,你就會發現愈來愈輕鬆。
在這個階段,你每篇研讀的論文大概都是夠水準的論文(因為他們是發表在主要的國際會議)。在研讀這些論文的時候,你得看它們探討那些相關的文獻,這些文獻你大致都得知道,並且就其中與你研究議題最相關的論文,你也得找出來仔細的研讀,並且重覆這樣子的工作一直追溯下去。你不用擔心這樣做會無止無境,因為當你從最近的一篇論文開始往前追朔,大概不超過三、四代,你就會發現不必再追朔,因為再往前追朔,你會發現它們要麼與你的研究議題愈來愈遠,要麼就是你研究領域的基本知識。如果是你研究領域應具備的基本知識,而你還不了解,那你應該回頭再修一些課把基礎打好,不該這麼早就進入你想研究的議題上。
根據這個經驗法則,你會發現你在survey的階段只要把握一個原則:把與研究議題相關的最近幾篇論文拿出來,看看這些論文所引用的文獻有沒有你不知道的,如果沒有,那麼比這些論文早的文獻你大概都沒遺漏了。如果有,就把它們找出來仔細的研讀。隨著你研讀的論文愈多,你的功力就愈增加。當你發現拿到一篇新論文時只要看完它的Introduction之後,你就知道這篇論文的重點及猜出它用的主要技術之後,你的功力已經提昇到可以進入研究議題的階段了。在這個階段,如果論文的研讀夠深入及廣泛,你往往也可以發現新的研究議題。
你的survey還不能在這裡停止,因為你的觸角可能尚未含蓋所有關於研究議題的文獻。你目前只有survey與研究議題相關的主要國際會議(以及會議論文所引用到的相關文獻),這些會議通常不超三到五個。目前的國際會議相當多,而且有些會議的研討議題又廣,因此有可能兩個會議的主軸不一樣,但卻含蓋類似的子題。舉例來說,假設你要研究的是peer-to-peer系統上的資訊搜尋,你大概會找專門探討peer-to-peer系統的國際會議。這個目前大概有二、三個。可是你知道那裡還有呢?我告訴你至少還有二、三十個可能:專門討論分散式系統裡的國際會議(這至少有五到十個,其中first tier的約三、四個,其餘為second tier),討論平行運算的國際會議(這至少也有五個),討論網路與通訊系統的國際會議(這至少十個以上),討論資料庫與資訊檢索的國際會議(這至少也有五個),相信了吧!而且還有好多新的workshop你從未聽過的。
你一定會問:一、我怎麼知道有那些可能相關的國際會議;二、我怎麼有辦法消化完這些會議的論文?
第一個問題得從你第一階段的論文研讀著手。在研讀這些論文的時候,你得注意它們發表在那裡,從而知道有那些可能相關的國際會議。
第二個問題:如何消化與你的研究議題可能相關的國際會議內的論文?你把與研究議題相關的最近幾篇論文找出來,看它們是在那一年發表的。如果你研究的是熱門議題,你找到的應該是去年或今年的論文;如果你的議題冷門,那最近一篇論文有可能是好幾年前的事。不過不管是冷是熱,你都只需把相關的國際會議最近一、二年的會議議程拿來看看,有沒有與你的研究議題相關的論文發表,有的話把論文找出來仔細研讀一下這篇論文有什麼突破,另外,也注意一下這篇論文引用的參考文獻有沒有你尚未讀過的,沒有的話表示你前階段的survey做的很仔細,有的話你就得把這些遺漏的論文找出來研讀,並且用前面提到的方法再去追朔這篇論文三、四代以內的參考文獻,以及論文出處,找出是否還有其他的相關國際會議,並且一樣得把這些會議近一、二年的議程拿來看看是否有相關的論文發表。這些過程一定會收斂的,而當你發現沒有新的論文被你找出來之後,你的survey工作大概已經做的差不多了,可以準備收工全心投入研究議題上。通常而言,你在第二階段找到的論文不會太多,大多數的論文在survey的第一階段都會看到。收工之前,為防萬一,你再到Google、Siteseer及幾個主要的digital library,如IEEE,ACM,Springer等去search一下,確定沒有漏網之魚。如果你survey的深入,你應當知道要下那些關鍵字去查詢。這個步驟也可以確保如果你研究的是冷門議題,在你看到的最近一篇的論文,到近一、二年的國際會議這期間,有沒有其他的論文你沒有注意到的(因為你最後一階段的survey工作只注意相關會議最近一、二年的議程,而你看到最近的論文可能是好幾年前的東西)。
在這裡我好像都沒提到期刊論文。一般而言,期刊論文通常比較完整,但刊登的結果往往是二、三年前的東西。就資訊科技而言,二、三年內的研究進展可能很大,因此比較新的結果通常先發表在國際會議上,發表之後,經過幾回合的修正才會投稿到期刊。所以你survey的論文比較新的東西很少會在期刊上發現。但反之,比較久的成果,有可能已整理發表於期刊上。如果是如此,那你在研讀這個成果時,最好是找已發表於期刊上的論文研讀,這樣會得到比較完整清楚的資訊。
整個survey的階段會看完幾篇論文?這當然看你的研究議題而定。但三十篇以上是跑不掉的。如果加上你只瀏覽Introduction 的部分,那可能在五、六十篇以上。
最後,我要你們做一件事情:
在一星期之內,把survey的工作按照我上面講的步驟重做一次。星期六之前,請你整理一個清單摘錄下列資訊,並email給我 (記住:做完整之後再email給我;我不要片段片段的接收你們的資訊):
1. 與你研究議題相關的國際會議及期刊有哪些。
2. 你找到哪些論文,論文格式請整理成bib檔格式(記住:我要的是bib檔格式,且要非常完整正確。如何做到,可以問實驗室學長。我也會請他整理一份心得告訴大家。)
3. 在你找到的論文裡,請用另一份表格整理下列資訊:請就這些論文依其與你研究議題的相關性分成三類:密切相關、相關、略為相關。同時請標記哪些是你已經仔細的研讀過的,哪些是你只瀏覽Introduction ,但有把握住整篇論文的重點。若有尚未看完的論文,也請標記。
4. 請把你列出來的所有論文電子檔以下列方式命名:
年代-會議或期刊縮寫(若不知,請以第一作者的Last Name代之)-Title的摘要。
例如:2003-SIGCOMM-Peer-to-Peer Information Retrieval Using Self-Organizing Semanticverlay Networks.pdf
然後請你上傳這些檔案到ftp,你的個人目錄底下的paper 子目錄內。我會就你整理的清單去判斷你的survey是否足夠,再來決定你的proposal及論文應該還要做哪些工作。
Joung
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相關資訊:莊裕澤教授