Yoga的歌唱實力在星光就已經廣為人知
這種冷淡哀愁 喃喃自語的曲調, 真的很適合他阿
當然曲子本身就好, 歌詞意境也很能夠讓人反覆咀嚼
好歌一首嘍!
是有過幾個不錯對象
說起來並不寂寞孤單
可能我浪蕩 讓人家不安
才會結果都健忘
我沒有什麼陰影魔掌 你千萬不要放在心上
我又不脆弱 何況那算什麼傷
反正愛情不就都這樣
我沒有說謊 我何必說謊
你懂我的 我對你從來就不會假裝
我哪有說謊 請別以為你有多難忘
消失 真的不是我逞強
我好久沒來這間餐廳 沒想到已經換了裝潢
角落那窗口 聞得到玫瑰花香 被你一說是有些影響
我沒有說謊 我何必說謊
你知道的 我缺點之一就是很健忘
我哪有說謊 是很感謝今晚的相伴
但我竟然有些不習慣
我沒有說謊 我何必說謊
愛一個人沒愛到難道就會怎麼樣
別說我說謊 人生已經如此的艱難
有些事情就不要拆穿
我沒有說謊 是愛情說謊
它帶你來 騙我說 可我 沒有可能有希望
我沒有說謊 祝你做個幸福的新娘
我的心事請你全遺忘
It begins with energy.
第一個是能源！
We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century. And yet, it is China that has launched the largest effort in history to make their economy energy efficient. We invented solar technology, but we've fallen behind countries like Germany and Japan in producing it. New plug-in hybrids roll off our assembly lines, but they will run on batteries made in Korea.
Well I do not accept a future where the jobs and industries of tomorrow take root beyond our borders - and I know you don't either. It is time for America to lead again.
Thanks to our recovery plan, we will double this nation's supply of renewable energy in the next three years. We have also made the largest investment in basic research funding in American history - an investment that will spur not only new discoveries in energy, but breakthroughs in medicine, science, and technology.
還在懷疑歐巴馬的決心嗎？未來三年，只要三年，要將美國的再生能源產量加倍
美國政府還要投注前所未有的大量資金進入研發領域，而且不侷限在能源，包括醫藥，科學和科技都會受惠
科技興國再度正式成為美國的國策
We will soon lay down thousands of miles of power lines that can carry new energy to cities and towns across this country. And we will put Americans to work making our homes and buildings more efficient so that we can save billions of dollars on our energy bills.
改變是徹底的，輸店線路和綠住宅將是著重的重點
（P.S.估計美國老舊的輸電線路每年讓美國額外損失超過10％的發電量，正所謂節省就是最好的開源）
But to truly transform our economy, protect our security, and save our planet from the ravages of climate change, we need to ultimately make clean, renewable energy the profitable kind of energy. So I ask this Congress to send me legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution and drives the production of more renewable energy in America. And to support that innovation, we will invest fifteen billion dollars a year to develop technologies like wind power and solar power; advanced biofuels, clean coal, and more fuel-efficient cars and trucks built right here in America.
每年將投入一百五十億美元於再生能源，乾淨煤炭，二代生質能源和節能車輛上（此金額相當於台灣一年的國防預算）
As for our auto industry, everyone recognizes that years of bad decision-making and a global recession have pushed our automakers to the brink. We should not, and will not, protect them from their own bad practices. But we are committed to the goal of a re-tooled, re-imagined auto industry that can compete and win. Millions of jobs depend on it. Scores of communities depend on it. And I believe the nation that invented the automobile cannot walk away from it.
這裡歐巴馬說溜了嘴，政府不會坐視美國車廠倒店啦～可是，這是有前提的，前提就是必須製造新的節能車輛，政府也會給予協助
None of this will come without cost, nor will it be easy. But this is America. We don't do what's easy. We do what is necessary to move this country forward.
For that same reason, we must also address the crushing cost of health care.
第二個是健保議題
This is a cost that now causes a bankruptcy in America every thirty seconds. By the end of the year, it could cause 1.5 million Americans to lose their homes. In the last eight years, premiums have grown four times faster than wages. And in each of these years, one million more Americans have lost their health insurance. It is one of the major reasons why small businesses close their doors and corporations ship jobs overseas. And it's one of the largest and fastest-growing parts of our budget.
美國健保已經成為美國納稅人最大的負擔，若是不改革，美國前途堪慮
Already, we have done more to advance the cause of health care reform in the last thirty days than we have in the last decade. When it was days old, this Congress passed a law to provide and protect health insurance for eleven million American children whose parents work full-time. Our recovery plan will invest in electronic health records and new technology that will reduce errors, bring down costs, ensure privacy, and save lives. It will launch a new effort to conquer a disease that has touched the life of nearly every American by seeking a cure for cancer in our time. And it makes the largest investment ever in preventive care, because that is one of the best ways to keep our people healthy and our costs under control.
電子化病歷，採用新科技，並投入大量的資金進入疾病防治，例如癌症上
This budget builds on these reforms. It includes an historic commitment to comprehensive health care reform - a down-payment on the principle that we must have quality, affordable health care for every American. It's a commitment that's paid for in part by efficiencies in our system that are long overdue. And it's a step we must take if we hope to bring down our deficit in the years to come.
只要能解決健保過度開支的問題，正是解決政府赤字最好的方式（God, 這傢伙抓重點抓的真準）
Now, there will be many different opinions and ideas about how to achieve reform, and that is why I'm bringing together businesses and workers, doctors and health care providers, Democrats and Republicans to begin work on this issue next week.
I suffer no illusions that this will be an easy process. It will be hard. But I also know that nearly a century after Teddy Roosevelt first called for reform, the cost of our health care has weighed down our economy and the conscience of our nation long enough. So let there be no doubt: health care reform cannot wait, it must not wait, and it will not wait another year.
呼籲立即的方案，希望不要再重蹈柯林頓八年一事無成的前車之鑑
The third challenge we must address is the urgent need to expand the promise of education in America.
Right now, three-quarters of the fastest-growing occupations require more than a high school diploma. And yet, just over half of our citizens have that level of education. We have one of the highest high school dropout rates of any industrialized nation. And half of the students who begin college never finish.
This is a prescription for economic decline, because we know the countries that out-teach us today will out-compete us tomorrow. That is why it will be the goal of this administration to ensure that every child has access to a complete and competitive education - from the day they are born to the day they begin a career.
指出教育正是經濟衰退的最大元兇，美國教育在工業國家表現中並不出色
Already, we have made an historic investment in education through the economic recovery plan. We have dramatically expanded early childhood education and will continue to improve its quality, because we know that the most formative learning comes in those first years of life. We have made college affordable for nearly seven million more students. And we have provided the resources necessary to prevent painful cuts and teacher layoffs that would set back our children's progress.
But we know that our schools don't just need more resources. They need more reform. That is why this budget creates new incentives for teacher performance; pathways for advancement, and rewards for success. We'll invest in innovative programs that are already helping schools meet high standards and close achievement gaps. And we will expand our commitment to charter schools.
It is our responsibility as lawmakers and educators to make this system work. But it is the responsibility of every citizen to participate in it. And so tonight, I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of higher education or career training. This can be community college or a four-year school; vocational training or an apprenticeship. But whatever the training may be, every American will need to get more than a high school diploma. And dropping out of high school is no longer an option. It's not just quitting on yourself, it's quitting on your country - and this country needs and values the talents of every American. That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.
These education policies will open the doors of opportunity for our children. But it is up to us to ensure they walk through them. In the end, there is no program or policy that can substitute for a mother or father who will attend those parent/teacher conferences, or help with homework after dinner, or turn off the TV, put away the video games, and read to their child. I speak to you not just as a President, but as a father when I say that responsibility for our children's education must begin at home.
說真的，教育這段和投資的相關性不大，但是小i本身身為一位教育從業人員，看到這段談話，特別有感觸也不禁動容...這也是整場演講中我覺得最振奮人心的一段
There is, of course, another responsibility we have to our children. And that is the responsibility to ensure that we do not pass on to them a debt they cannot pay. With the deficit we inherited, the cost of the crisis we face, and the long-term challenges we must meet, it has never been more important to ensure that as our economy recovers, we do what it takes to bring this deficit down.
演說中的第四個重點來了：債務
絕不債留子孫，會想盡辦法減少美國政府赤字
I'm proud that we passed the recovery plan free of earmarks, and I want to pass a budget next year that ensures that each dollar we spend reflects only our most important national priorities.
Yesterday, I held a fiscal summit where I pledged to cut the deficit in half by the end of my first term in office. My administration has also begun to go line by line through the federal budget in order to eliminate wasteful and ineffective programs. As you can imagine, this is a process that will take some time. But we're starting with the biggest lines. We have already identified two trillion dollars in savings over the next decade.
1. 第一任期的最後一年就要將政府赤字減半（唉，相較起台灣的藍綠政治人物往往將政見兌現日放到第二任去...畫個大餅）
2. ！！！！未來十年，美國政府評估，將能夠省下兩兆美元的盈餘！？
In this budget, we will end education programs that don't work and end direct payments to large agribusinesses that don't need them. We'll eliminate the no-bid contracts that have wasted billions in Iraq, and reform our defense budget so that we're not paying for Cold War-era weapons systems we don't use. We will root out the waste, fraud, and abuse in our Medicare program that doesn't make our seniors any healthier, and we will restore a sense of fairness and balance to our tax code by finally ending the tax breaks for corporations that ship our jobs overseas.
如何達成？方法都有提供：減少伊戰軍事開支，減少冷戰遺留武器系統開支，減少健保浮濫浪費的計畫，最重要的，會對頂端2％的富人徵稅，
95%的中產階級基本上不受影響
To preserve our long-term fiscal health, we must also address the growing costs in Medicare and Social Security. Comprehensive health care reform is the best way to strengthen Medicare for years to come. And we must also begin a conversation on how to do the same for Social Security, while creating tax-free universal savings accounts for all Americans.
健保和社保體系將會全盤改革與強化
Finally, because we're also suffering from a deficit of trust, I am committed to restoring a sense of honesty and accountability to our budget. That is why this budget looks ahead ten years and accounts for spending that was left out under the old rules - and for the first time, that includes the full cost of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. For seven years, we have been a nation at war. No longer will we hide its price.
We are now carefully reviewing our policies in both wars, and I will soon announce a way forward in Iraq that leaves Iraq to its people and responsibly ends this war.
伊戰不打了
And with our friends and allies, we will forge a new and comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan to defeat al Qaeda and combat extremism. Because I will not allow terrorists to plot against the American people from safe havens half a world away.
As we meet here tonight, our men and women in uniform stand watch abroad and more are readying to deploy. To each and every one of them, and to the families who bear the quiet burden of their absence, Americans are united in sending one message: we honor your service, we are inspired by your sacrifice, and you have our unyielding support. To relieve the strain on our forces, my budget increases the number of our soldiers and Marines. And to keep our sacred trust with those who serve, we will raise their pay, and give our veterans the expanded health care and benefits that they have earned.
In words and deeds, we are showing the world that a new era of engagement has begun. For we know that America cannot meet the threats of this century alone, but the world cannot meet them without America. We cannot shun the negotiating table, nor ignore the foes or forces that could do us harm. We are instead called to move forward with the sense of confidence and candor that serious times demand.
To seek progress toward a secure and lasting peace between Israel and her neighbors, we have appointed an envoy to sustain our effort. To meet the challenges of the 21st century - from terrorism to nuclear proliferation; from pandemic disease to cyber threats to crushing poverty - we will strengthen old alliances, forge new ones, and use all elements of our national power.
外交問題，這段先不談了
As we stand at this crossroads of history, the eyes of all people in all nations are once again upon us - watching to see what we do with this moment; waiting for us to lead.
不斷強調目前是歷史的十字路口
Those of us gathered here tonight have been called to govern in extraordinary times. It is a tremendous burden, but also a great privilege - one that has been entrusted to few generations of Americans. For in our hands lies the ability to shape our world for good or for ill.
But in my life, I have also learned that hope is found in unlikely places; that inspiration often comes not from those with the most power or celebrity, but from the dreams and aspirations of Americans who are anything but ordinary.
I think about Leonard Abess, the bank president from Miami who reportedly cashed out of his company, took a $60 million bonus, and gave it out to all 399 people who worked for him, plus another 72 who used to work for him. He didn't tell anyone, but when the local newspaper found out, he simply said, ''I knew some of these people since I was 7 years old. I didn't feel right getting the money myself."
I think about Greensburg, Kansas, a town that was completely destroyed by a tornado, but is being rebuilt by its residents as a global example of how clean energy can power an entire community - how it can bring jobs and businesses to a place where piles of bricks and rubble once lay. "The tragedy was terrible," said one of the men who helped them rebuild. "But the folks here know that it also provided an incredible opportunity."
And I think about Ty'Sheoma Bethea, the young girl from that school I visited in Dillon, South Carolina - a place where the ceilings leak, the paint peels off the walls, and they have to stop teaching six times a day because the train barrels by their classroom. She has been told that her school is hopeless, but the other day after class she went to the public library and typed up a letter to the people sitting in this room. She even asked her principal for the money to buy a stamp. The letter asks us for help, and says, "We are just students trying to become lawyers, doctors, congressmen like yourself and one day president, so we can make a change to not just the state of South Carolina but also the world. We are not quitters."
We are not quitters.
上面是一堆煽情的故事..拖台錢，沒啥好談
Their resolve must be our inspiration. Their concerns must be our cause. And we must show them and all our people that we are equal to the task before us.
I know that we haven't agreed on every issue thus far, and there are surely times in the future when we will part ways. But I also know that every American who is sitting here tonight loves this country and wants it to succeed. That must be the starting point for every debate we have in the coming months, and where we return after those debates are done. That is the foundation on which the American people expect us to build common ground.
And if we do - if we come together and lift this nation from the depths of this crisis; if we put our people back to work and restart the engine of our prosperity; if we confront without fear the challenges of our time and summon that enduring spirit of an America that does not quit, then someday years from now our children can tell their children that this was the time when we performed, in the words that are carved into this very chamber, "something worthy to be remembered." Thank you, God Bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.
最後這兩段，建議寄給台灣朝野諸公...相信昨天有看到美國國會的秩序與氣氛的人，都會覺得兩地的政治水平似乎不處在同一個時空昨天花了一個小時消化歐巴馬首次國情咨文，說真的，講的十分振奮人心，Obama不愧為當代最偉大演說家之一，講到某些令人動容片段實在甚至有些引人熱淚..
結果，今天攤開各份報紙的相關報導，小ｉ倒是真的想哭了...大家似乎不是很重視，不過這樣也好，投資世界本來就是孤獨的
這篇文章，令人感動的其實不是其過人的演說技巧，而是精確點出美國當前經濟問題所在，並提出切中時弊的對策，沒有生手的生嫩
而仔細揣摩其中的關闕，我們甚至可以找出未來很長一段時間美國乃至於世界的新方向，而這對我們往往正意味著「新金礦」
翻譯全文的工作太耗時了，我就簡單幫大家整理一些重要的重點，並於文末提供一點個人的簡單看法，由於演說稿太長無法放入同一篇文章
，因此分成上中下三集，以下，是這次歐巴馬總統於國會演說的全文：
日後回顧21世紀的歷史，這可能會是本世紀最重要的國情咨文：
I've come here tonight not only to address the distinguished men and women in this great chamber, but to speak frankly and directly to the men and women who sent us here.
I know that for many Americans watching right now, the state of our economy is a concern that rises above all others. And rightly so. If you haven't been personally affected by this recession, you probably know someone who has - a friend; a neighbor; a member of your family. You don't need to hear another list of statistics to know that our economy is in crisis, because you live it every day. It's the worry you wake up with and the source of sleepless nights. It's the job you thought you'd retire from but now have lost; the business you built your dreams upon that's now hanging by a thread; the college acceptance letter your child had to put back in the envelope. The impact of this recession is real, and it is everywhere.
But while our economy may be weakened and our confidence shaken; though we are living through difficult and uncertain times, tonight I want every American to know this:
We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger than before.
The weight of this crisis will not determine the destiny of this nation. The answers to our problems don't lie beyond our reach. They exist in our laboratories and universities; in our fields and our factories; in the imaginations of our entrepreneurs and the pride of the hardest-working people on Earth. Those qualities that have made America the greatest force of progress and prosperity in human history we still possess in ample measure. What is required now is for this country to pull together, confront boldly the challenges we face, and take responsibility for our future once more.
要著力的重點，美國的問題所在
Now, if we're honest with ourselves, we'll admit that for too long, we have not always met these responsibilities - as a government or as a people. I say this not to lay blame or look backwards, but because it is only by understanding how we arrived at this moment that we'll be able to lift ourselves out of this predicament.
The fact is, our economy did not fall into decline overnight. Nor did all of our problems begin when the housing market collapsed or the stock market sank. We have known for decades that our survival depends on finding new sources of energy. Yet we import more oil today than ever before. The cost of health care eats up more and more of our savings each year, yet we keep delaying reform. Our children will compete for jobs in a global economy that too many of our schools do not prepare them for. And though all these challenges went unsolved, we still managed to spend more money and pile up more debt, both as individuals and through our government, than ever before.
近一步闡明問題的核心所在，能源，健保，教育，債務（演說四大主軸）
In other words, we have lived through an era where too often, short-term gains were prized over long-term prosperity; where we failed to look beyond the next payment, the next quarter, or the next election. A surplus became an excuse to transfer wealth to the wealthy instead of an opportunity to invest in our future. Regulations were gutted for the sake of a quick profit at the expense of a healthy market. People bought homes they knew they couldn't afford from banks and lenders who pushed those bad loans anyway. And all the while, critical debates and difficult decisions were put off for some other time on some other day.
嚴肅面對債務的問題，黑馬這次玩真的！？信不信由你
Well that day of reckoning has arrived, and the time to take charge of our future is here.
Now is the time to act boldly and wisely - to not only revive this economy, but to build a new foundation for lasting prosperity. Now is the time to jumpstart job creation, re-start lending, and invest in areas like energy, health care, and education that will grow our economy, even as we make hard choices to bring our deficit down. That is what my economic agenda is designed to do, and that's what I'd like to talk to you about tonight.
It's an agenda that begins with jobs.
振興計畫不是債留子孫，而是為了製造更多民間部門的就業（90％），錢會被用在基礎建設，風力太陽能，擴大寬頻和大眾運輸建設
Because of this plan, there are teachers who can now keep their jobs and educate our kids. Health care professionals can continue caring for our sick. There are 57 police officers who are still on the streets of Minneapolis tonight because this plan prevented the layoffs their department was about to make.
有了這個計畫，教育和醫療能夠更好地發展
Because of this plan, 95% of the working households in America will receive a tax cut - a tax cut that you will see in your paychecks beginning on April 1st.
Because of this plan, families who are struggling to pay tuition costs will receive a $2,500 tax credit for all four years of college. And Americans who have lost their jobs in this recession will be able to receive extended unemployment benefits and continued health care coverage to help them weather this storm.
I know there are some in this chamber and watching at home who are skeptical of whether this plan will work. I understand that skepticism. Here in Washington, we've all seen how quickly good intentions can turn into broken promises and wasteful spending. And with a plan of this scale comes enormous responsibility to get it right.
So the recovery plan we passed is the first step in getting our economy back on track. But it is just the first step. Because even if we manage this plan flawlessly, there will be no real recovery unless we clean up the credit crisis that has severely weakened our financial system.
I want to speak plainly and candidly about this issue tonight, because every American should know that it directly affects you and your family's well-being. You should also know that the money you've deposited in banks across the country is safe; your insurance is secure; and you can rely on the continued operation of our financial system. That is not the source of concern.
不用擔心金融體系啦（國有化是後盾？）
The concern is that if we do not re-start lending in this country, our recovery will be choked off before it even begins.
You see, the flow of credit is the lifeblood of our economy. The ability to get a loan is how you finance the purchase of everything from a home to a car to a college education; how stores stock their shelves, farms buy equipment, and businesses make payroll.
But credit has stopped flowing the way it should. Too many bad loans from the housing crisis have made their way onto the books of too many banks. With so much debt and so little confidence, these banks are now fearful of lending out any more money to households, to businesses, or to each other. When there is no lending, families can't afford to buy homes or cars. So businesses are forced to make layoffs. Our economy suffers even more, and credit dries up even further.
We will do so in several ways. First, we are creating a new lending fund that represents the largest effort ever to help provide auto loans, college loans, and small business loans to the consumers and entrepreneurs who keep this economy running.
有關流動性問題，第一步，政府會成立新的借貸資金提供私人汽車，學貸和商業貸款
Second, we have launched a housing plan that will help responsible families facing the threat of foreclosure lower their monthly payments and re-finance their mortgages. It's a plan that won't help speculators or that neighbor down the street who bought a house he could never hope to afford, but it will help millions of Americans who are struggling with declining home values - Americans who will now be able to take advantage of the lower interest rates that this plan has already helped bring about. In fact, the average family who re-finances today can save nearly $2000 per year on their mortgage.
第二步：政府會幫助負責任的屋主度過難關(這裡特別強調政府不會援助購買超過自己負擔能力的屋主)
Third, we will act with the full force of the federal government to ensure that the major banks that Americans depend on have enough confidence and enough money to lend even in more difficult times. And when we learn that a major bank has serious problems, we will hold accountable those responsible, force the necessary adjustments, provide the support to clean up their balance sheets, and assure the continuity of a strong, viable institution that can serve our people and our economy.
第三步：會確保重要銀行的運行
I understand that on any given day, Wall Street may be more comforted by an approach that gives banks bailouts with no strings attached, and that holds nobody accountable for their reckless decisions. But such an approach won't solve the problem. And our goal is to quicken the day when we re-start lending to the American people and American business and end this crisis once and for all.
華爾街，你的好日子過去了，皮繃緊一點
I intend to hold these banks fully accountable for the assistance they receive, and this time, they will have to clearly demonstrate how taxpayer dollars result in more lending for the American taxpayer. This time, CEOs won't be able to use taxpayer money to pad their paychecks or buy fancy drapes or disappear on a private jet. Those days are over.
好日子過去了..
I understand that when the last administration asked this Congress to provide assistance for struggling banks, Democrats and Republicans alike were infuriated by the mismanagement and results that followed. So were the American taxpayers. So was I.
So I know how unpopular it is to be seen as helping banks right now, especially when everyone is suffering in part from their bad decisions. I promise you - I get it.
我知道大家對於救銀行都很不爽，我（歐巴馬）也很不爽
But I also know that in a time of crisis, we cannot afford to govern out of anger, or yield to the politics of the moment. My job - our job - is to solve the problem. Our job is to govern with a sense of responsibility. I will not spend a single penny for the purpose of rewarding a single Wall Street executive, but I will do whatever it takes to help the small business that can't pay its workers or the family that has saved and still can't get a mortgage.
That's what this is about. It's not about helping banks - it's about helping people. Because when credit is available again, that young family can finally buy a new home. And then some company will hire workers to build it. And then those workers will have money to spend, and if they can get a loan too, maybe they'll finally buy that car, or open their own business. Investors will return to the market, and American families will see their retirement secured once more. Slowly, but surely, confidence will return, and our economy will recover.
So I ask this Congress to join me in doing whatever proves necessary. Because we cannot consign our nation to an open-ended recession. And to ensure that a crisis of this magnitude never happens again, I ask Congress to move quickly on legislation that will finally reform our outdated regulatory system. It is time to put in place tough, new common-sense rules of the road so that our financial market rewards drive and innovation, and punishes short-cuts and abuse.
好啦，救銀行只是短期方案，真正的主軸，我們的責任－能源，健保，教育，債務！
In the next few days, I will submit a budget to Congress. So often, we have come to view these documents as simply numbers on a page or laundry lists of programs. I see this document differently. I see it as a vision for America - as a blueprint for our future.
My budget does not attempt to solve every problem or address every issue. It reflects the stark reality of what we've inherited - a trillion dollar deficit, a financial crisis, and a costly recession.
Given these realities, everyone in this chamber - Democrats and Republicans - will have to sacrifice some worthy priorities for which there are no dollars. And that includes me.
But that does not mean we can afford to ignore our long-term challenges. I reject the view that says our problems will simply take care of themselves; that says government has no role in laying the foundation for our common prosperity.
聽懂暗示沒？我是左派，右派的歷史結束了，腦筋轉不過來的要快點轉（reject, 這個用語很重）
For history tells a different story. History reminds us that at every moment of economic upheaval and transformation, this nation has responded with bold action and big ideas. In the midst of civil war, we laid railroad tracks from one coast to another that spurred commerce and industry. From the turmoil of the Industrial Revolution came a system of public high schools that prepared our citizens for a new age. In the wake of war and depression, the GI Bill sent a generation to college and created the largest middle-class in history. And a twilight struggle for freedom led to a nation of highways, an American on the moon, and an explosion of technology that still shapes our world.
We are a nation that has seen promise amid peril, and claimed opportunity from ordeal. Now we must be that nation again. That is why, even as it cuts back on the programs we don't need, the budget I submit will invest in the three areas that are absolutely critical to our economic future: energy, health care, and education.
三大投資主軸：能源！健保！教育！
（續中集，本篇不開放留言，請集中至下篇討論）
Mr Thursday在介紹機率的一篇文章中，談及人們可以利用期望值的概念，對不確定的事情的價值進行估算。這次我想談談一個和期望值有直接關係的悖論 - 聖彼德堡悖論﹝St Petersburg Paradox﹞
聖彼德堡悖論所提及的情形是這樣的，如果現在有一個遊戲，首先擲一個銅板，如果擲出正面，你便會得到1元，這樣遊戲便結束了。但如果擲出反面，便要再擲一次，如果在這個時候擲出正面，便賺2元﹝2^1﹞，同樣，擲出反面的話便要再擲一次。在如果在這次才擲到正面，你便得到4元﹝2^2﹞，如果是反面則再擲，一直繼續，直到擲出正面才結算。
總括而言便是「出現反面便再擲，如果出現正面你便得到x元，x是2的n-1次方(x=2^(n-1))，而n則是一共擲了多少次」。
這個遊戲的結果是一種「不確定的事情」﹝因為我不知道會出現多少次反面啊﹞，人們如何估量這種事情的價值？換句話說，就假設這個個銅板真是是1/2 機會出現正面，1/2 機會出現反面，你會願意付出多少錢來換取可以參加這個遊戲的權利？
表面上好像沒有什麼特別，但如果我們利用期望值進行估算，這個遊戲的期望值竟然是…….
期望值=(1/2)*1 + (1/4)*2 + (1/8)*4 + (1/16)*8 + (1/32)*16 ……….= (1/2)+(1/2)+(1/2)+…… = 無限大?!
期望值的確是這樣計出來的，1/2 的機會得到1 元，1/4 機會得到2 元，1/8 機會得到4 元，如此類推……….最後把它們都加起來，不就是期望值了嗎？那就是說這個遊戲的期望值是無限大，但問題是，我猜沒有人會為了玩這個遊戲付出很多金錢吧，想想看啊，這個遊戲很有可能只會讓你得到1 ,2 或4 元，不要說「無限大」了，要付出100元去玩這個遊戲也嫌太多了吧。可是為什麼大家都不願意付出很多金錢去換取這個期望值是無限大的遊戲呢？
對於這個悖論，有很多人都提出過解釋，第一個是利用了期望功用理論，這和之前提及的功用理論是有點關係的。
期望功用理論
Log Function (Source: Wikipedia)
數學家Daniel Bernoulli提出，我們對一項物品的價值是由它帶給我們的功用而來的，即使是金錢或財富我們也可以用同樣的說法，就是說我們應估量的，是這個金錢或財富帶給我們的功用的期望值，而不是金錢本身的期望值。
他說我們可以用一個功用函數來表達金錢帶給人們的功用，然後把功用的期望值計算出來，他選用的功用函數是對數函數，即是說，擁有1元，帶給我們的功用數值是log(1)，擁有2元，則是log(2)，擁有x 元便是log(x)，而這個log(x)才是我們真正要估量的價值。
如果利用這個函數把期望值重計一次，便知道那絕對不是「無限大」，某程度上是解答了聖彼德堡悖論。
可是，在云云這麼多的函數中，為什麼他偏偏要選擇對數函數？原來對數函數有一個重要的特性，就是它是不斷的上升，而且是越升越慢的，這個特性正好表達了一個窮光蛋得到5000元便高興得很，但一個億萬富豪得到5000元卻不覺得有什麼特別高興這種情況﹝註一﹞。而事實上，如果我們選其他會「越升越慢」的函數﹝例如平方根﹞，也有差不多的效果。
我明白說到這兒一定有很多人跑出來說這個函數有問題，但Daniel Bernoulli這個解答的漏洞還不止這一個。更嚴重的問題是，即使對數函數真的可以把功用表達出來，但只要我們把這個遊戲稍稍調整，例如由大家擲到正面時可以得到2^(n-1)元，改為exp(2^(n-1))元，那麼不管你是說這個遊戲的期望值，還是它的功用的期望值也好，通通都變成無限大了。但明顯地，即使這種調整是令這遊戲賞金提高了不少，仍然沒有人們會肯付出數萬元去換取玩這個很有可能只能得到少於數十元的遊戲的。
總括來說這個利用期望功用理論的解答是問題多多，但原來Daniel Bernoulli 的表親Nicolas Bernoulli 也對這個悖論提出了一個解釋，他是從人們對那些不太可能發生的事件的態度來看這個悖論的。
人們傾向不理會太可能發生的事件
Source: http://wowbox.tw/
Nicolas Bernoulli 所提出的是，當我們仔細看看期望值的計算︰
期望值= (1/2)*1 + (1/4)*2 + (1/8)*4 + (1/16)*8 + (1/32)*16 …….
期望值的確是無限大沒錯，但一開始的數項﹝(1/2)*1 + (1/4)*2 + (1/8)*4﹞已經把最有可能發生的數個情況寫出來了，餘下的﹝(1/16)*8或之後的﹞都是那些發生機率很低很低的事﹝機率是(1/32)，(1/64)，(1/128)………﹞，而人們會很重視機率大的數項﹝就是你很大機會會得到1 ，2 或4 元﹞，而不會理會後面那些不太可能發生的可能性。這樣看，他們當然就不肯付很多錢去參加這個遊戲啊。
維基百科中提及Nicolas Bernoulli這個解釋的問題在於，很多心理學的展望理論﹝Prospect theory﹞或實驗經濟學到得到結論都說「人們是會過於重視那些不太可能發生的事件」，這和Nicolas Bernoulli 所提出的剛好相反。可是要留意一點，很多在心理學或實驗經濟學中提及的「人們是會過於重視那些不太可能發生的事件」，都是指造成損失的事件，好像是如果有一個遊戲是有0.0001% 你會損失很多錢，你便會感到過於害怕而不敢玩，即使只是0.0001%。但這不代表把事件換成是像聖彼德堡悖論中那種「賺錢事件」時，結果都會一樣﹝補充︰這兒我說得太武斷了，請看小光的回應﹞。試想，同一個人，可以因為對出現很低機率的損失很重視，但同時又對很低機率的賺錢機會覺得沒什麼感覺吧。所以我不太贊同wikipedia中所說「現代的展望理論推番了Nicolas Bernoulli的解釋」的說法。可是我看過的心理學文獻實在很少，如果說錯了請指正。
是因為對方根本付不起
這個是在眾多對聖彼得堡悖論的解答中我最喜歡的一個，簡單說這個解答便是「人們不肯付錢玩這個遊戲，是因為對方賠不起」。也許你會說，難道你找一個極極極度有錢的人開設這個遊戲，人們就會付出數萬元去玩這個很可能只派1或2 元的遊戲嗎？答案是，是，但這個「極極極度有錢」是什麼意思？
如果我們假設對方有十億元，也就是說如果你真的十分好運，連擲29 次反面，到第30 次才擲正面，對方便會破產，那時只好賠你十億元了事。如果我們依照之前的說法，把期望值計算出來，又會得到什麼？
期望值=(1/2)*1 + (1/4)*2 + (1/8)*4 + (1/16)*8 + (1/32)*16 …….+ 1000000000*(1/2)^30 = 15.93
原來如果對方「只有」十億元這麼「少」的錢，我們對這個遊戲的期望值便由「無限大」跌至15.93 元，而在真實世界提供這種遊戲給我們的人，應該不會有十億元吧，如果他們最多只可以賠數十萬元﹝也不算是小數目了﹞，那麼期望值就真的只餘下數元了。如果說我們只願意付出數元去玩這個遊戲的話，看來期望值對於這個遊戲價值的估量也不是太差。
後記
維基百科對St Petersburg paradox還有更詳細的解釋，也有一些上面沒有提及的解答，有興趣的讀者可以去看看。原來寫這種paradox 也蠻難的﹝還以為會比較輕鬆﹞，本來還想在一篇裏寫完St Petersburg paradox, Allais Paradox 和Ellsburg Paradox，現在很來還是在另一篇才寫吧。
﹝註一﹞對數函數還表達了人們對風險的厭惡，這也解釋了為什麼用這個函數可以某程度上可以用來解答聖彼德堡悖論，如果用文字來說就相等於說「單用期望值的話沒有考慮風險因素，而人們不肯付出無限多的金錢去玩這個遊戲是因為他們不想承受這個遊戲的風險」
這期的《經濟學人》竟然很難得的介紹了一個叫「Rypple」的網站。哪泥？經濟學人幹嘛介紹網站？於是這篇文章帶來了「不只是網站」的更深一層的人生意義。
Rypple這個網站也真的很妙，它其實只是一個「幫你問意見」的網站，還想模仿微型部落格每條意見只給問100個字元，不過，這個普普通通的網站，竟已經被創業家（或他身邊的高手）巧妙包裝成一個「企業應用網站」，上上周的WWD部落格一篇文章已經稱Rypple為一個可以協助人資人員取得「360度績效評估」 的工具。所謂「360度績效評估」，就是在年終除了由主管評部屬打考績是優等、甲等還是乙等，還要由同部門的同事，甚至部屬也都可以幫忙打績效，全方位的 環景。Rypple號稱，企業可以要求每個員工透過Rypple來問一個關於他自己的問題，然後寄Rypple給所有同事的email住址，同事就會收 到，然後幫你評價，評價可以匿名，可以只回報到人資部門，就是「360度績效評估」囉！
也就是說，你或你的主管可以問大家：「各位，這位同事今天對客戶的簡報表現怎樣？」
「花小姐這次在尾牙的主持還滿意嗎？」
甚至，在某位員工試用期滿前，還可以問問大家：「你認為小明可以過試用期嗎？」
因為Rypple喊出了這個方向，所以它理所當然的對企業使用者收取每個CPU $2~5美元的費用。我對Rypple的看法有些保守，這樣的「360度績效評估」似乎不足，但它的用意真妙。接下來，來到這星期的這篇《經濟學人》的文章（連結在這裡再貼一次），發現它竟然又以另一個更特殊的觀點來介紹Rypple。
《經濟學人》破題就指出，Rypple解決了現在年輕上班族的一個「需求」──
現在的年輕上班族、電腦世代，需要老闆給他們更頻繁的「回饋」(feedback)！
什麼意思？它說，以往企業習慣一年才打一次績效。現在層級打破，老闆或許機會一周與基層員工開會一次，所以變成一周一次績效。
一周打一次績效，夠頻繁了吧？
這篇報導說，不，這樣仍然太少，這樣仍然太少！
報導說，目前各企業的基層員工或初階主管，從小打電動到大，喜歡破關，習慣看自己的名字掛在排行榜上，打一場成功，就可以掛上去，不必等到期末考！ 現在網路時代來了，每個網路人更是習慣「頻繁的回饋」，比如你的同事裡可能有在寫部落格的，寫部落格的人，天天都在看流量，有的甚至還是每小時都要打開部 落格後台看留言的！對這些人來說，他們已經習慣，一天得到好幾次的「回饋」。
這些回饋化為動力，讓年輕的白領，繼續前進。不過由於習慣以這些回饋為動力，於是大家被寵慣，《經濟學人》建議，現代老闆若想有效鼓勵與監督這些年輕人，應該順著世代趨勢，把「績效評估」做得更頻繁，頻繁到一天可以好幾次。注意，一、天、好、幾、次！讓年輕人可以以和玩網路一樣的心情放在工作上。《經濟學人》認為，Rypple這個網站，正是可以做到「極頻繁的回饋」(frequent assessments)。
Rypple的部份先別提了，其他的觀察，真是一語道破，很有道理，現在的新上班族，的確需要主管更常常給予回饋，但，我認為，也不自覺的陷入一個愈來愈沒有自我的境地－－
上次接受採訪，談到「宅文化」。我頑皮提出一個新概念──從前大家說，宅男宅女就是那些戴著厚眼鏡整天只看電腦的人，宅男宅女都有「社交障礙症」，成天閉門不出，天天晨昏顛倒，生活異於常人？我說，錯！宅男與宅女之所以在電腦前面這麼久，是否也有另一種可能──他們實在太愛交朋友了？
這些宅男宅女，很有可能是對社交「需求更大」的人！
就是因為他們「太愛熱鬧」，所以才要天天掛網，每天和網路上許多朋友更新自己的最新狀況、最新想法……。
從這個方向來思考「宅文化」，會發現原本以為是問題的不是問題，原本以為不是問題的反而是問題。
昨天我到伯朗咖啡店，伯朗咖啡廳的插座已經是全台北市最多的，但需要使用的人更多，座位一桌難求，現在可以坐在座位上安然打電腦的全都是好不容易佔 到的。我好不容易佔到一位，然後去上洗手間，去的時候，一、二、三、四、五、六台電腦，每個人無論男的女的年輕的老的都一臉專注（一臉如癡如呆）盯著自己 的電腦，有的眉頭深鎖，有的眼睛快噴出火，好像都很投入，顯然都是宅男宅女是吧？但回來的路上，反過來偷看他們的電腦螢幕，一、二、三、四、五、六台電 腦，原來，他(她)們全部都在IM上面聊天。每一個人都開著IM視窗，放在正中間正在打字或聽字，有好幾個還「放到最大」。
《經濟學人》這次點出了一個重要訊息：現在的人對回饋系統的需求量被網路養得更大，變得「每天都要、每小時都要」，而他們的解決方法是「Rypple」，認為主管就要更常給他們回饋，同事也要更常常有回饋？
這個Rypple案例也突然讓我想到另一件事，想來提出討論一下──我們在網路世代是否太仰賴「別人的回饋」了？
一個人最安全也最適合的回饋，其實來自自己。
給自己回饋的能力，大家已經漸漸沒有了。現代人習慣在線上與人交流，從他們得到回饋，久而久之，大家愈來愈仰賴來自社群的言語，做什麼事都有一個「百人智囊團」可以出主意，但，從此也變得沒有「自己回饋自己」的能力。
大家聽到一個好棒的文章，連忙將這文章轉寄給好友，自己卻不留一份。
大家聽到一個很深的領悟，連忙告訴好友這件事，自己卻不留一份。
久而久之，不留任何東西給自己。
大家已經很久沒打開一個「檔案」，寫一些東西，存檔。
大家已經很久沒有整理自己的一切，將它包包裝裝成一個「不是馬上給別人看」的東西。
這些事情不會立刻被人看到，它們就像種子，總有一天，有人會看到──
那個人是「自己」。
以後的自己。
自己看到有何值得慶賀之處？
最近為了給雜誌拍照，把所有的日記翻出來，也順帶剛好把最近幾個月的日記印出、裝訂。這個動作最近因為忙碌比較沒做，一做了後，感覺上和寫部落格非常不一樣。 我看到這些作品，心中的回饋非常的大，那是一年前的我給現在的我的回饋，只要我繼續寫下去，現在的我又在給一年後的我預埋回饋。只要每天製造好幾個這樣的 回饋，以後自己會天天收到自己留給自己的回饋。以數量來看，以我而言，想一想，每天至少要「做完」大約十件事。早上若寫兩篇文章就是先做完兩件事，然後做 完兩個簡報又是完成兩件事。寫了兩封正式的信函又是完成兩件事。收尾兩個網站的功能也是完成兩件事。以上這些事都是存檔下來，留在那邊等待其他人以後來 看、或在下一場要用。當開始用的時候，拿出來就會被自己的檔案給感受到：「哇，一個回饋！」
自己給自己回饋原來這麼簡單。
做完一件事，將它封存在硬碟的某一處。
做完一件事，讓它靜靜坐在辦公桌的角落。
做完一件事，讓它以完成的姿態站在那邊等著人去觀賞。
只要是成品，就是一個很大的回饋，這比每天在線上放線頭，沒有一個結尾還要好得很多很多。這是自己可以讚賞自己的最佳方式。
這些事情會四處發酵、遍地開花。不久以後，通通都是自己的禮物。
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